Scottish economic bulletin: June 2026

Output

The Scottish economy grew in the first quarter of 2026, however growth was subdued and had slowed from the fourth quarter of 2025.

• Scotland’s GDP grew 0.1% in Q1 2026, picking-up from flat growth in the 3-months to both January and February (0.0%), however remained weaker than 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. Both Scotland and the UK have seen growth rates vary over the last few years.
• UK GDP grew 0.6% in Q1 2026, picking-up moderately from weaker growth in the second half of 2025. Over the past year as a whole (Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025), Scotland’s GDP has grown by 0.8% (UK: 1.1%).^[1],[2]

• At a sector level, growth in the first quarter of 2026 was driven by the services sector (0.2%) and a modest rebound in construction output growth (0.4%), which more than offset a contraction in production output (-0.5%).
• Within the services sector, growth was supported by a return to positive growth in consumer‑facing services output (0.3%, up from -0.2% in Q4 2025). Within this, retail output increased (2.2%), however accommodation and food services output continued to fall (-2.6%). More broadly, growth across the services industries was also relatively mixed across the quarter with falls in output in finance and insurance activities (-0.6%), professional, scientific and technical services (-0.4%) and further strengthening in growth in information and communication (2.7%). Over the past year, services output has grown 1.4%.
• Construction output grew modestly over the first quarter of the year (0.4%), following a sharp drop in output through the turn of the year, and marked a return to positive three‑monthly growth for the first time since September 2025. Over the past year, construction output has grown 0.1%.

• In contrast, the production sector contracted over the first quarter, with output falling 0.5% and weakening from 1.3% growth in Q4 2025. The contraction was driven in part by a fall in manufacturing output (-1.4%). Output growth in water supply and waste management (1.6%) and electricity and gas supply (2%) provided some offset, however over the past year as a whole, production output fell 2%.