Scottish Climate Survey: main findings

• respondents were more positive than negative about the impacts the transition to net zero would have on people’s quality of life over the next five years, although over half (56%) thought it would make no difference or did not know
• a third (32%) thought that the net zero transition would improve quality of life in five years’ time, compared to 12% who expected it would make it worse
• they were more positive about the likely impacts by 2045, with 44% expecting that the transition would have improved quality of life by that time, compared to 11% who thought it would have made it worse
• views on whether the transition would have a positive or negative impact on the availability of jobs were more mixed, with most saying it would make no difference or that they did not know
• two in five respondents (41%) thought their job had been or would be affected by the transition to net zero: 7% said their job had already changed, 29% expected their job would require changes in the future, and 4% believed their job would no longer exist
• respondents working in the transport and logistics sector were more likely to say their job would require changes in the future, while those in the oil and gas sector were much more likely to say their job would not exist in the future

The perceived impacts of Scotland’s transition to net zero

Respondents were asked about the impact they thought Scotland’s transition to net zero would have on their local area, specifically in regard to people’s quality of life and its impact on the availability of jobs.

Impact of net zero on people’s quality of life

As shown in Figure 10.1, respondents’ views on the impact that Scotland’s transition to net zero would have on people’s quality of life in their local area were more positive than negative.

A third (32%) thought that, in five years’ time, it would improve people’s quality of life, compared to one in ten (12%) who thought it would make it worse. However, 38% thought that it would make no difference to people’s quality of life, while 18% said they did not know.

Respondents were more positive about the longer-term impacts of the transition to net zero. More than four in ten (44%) thought that by 2045 the transition would have improved people’s quality of life, compared to 11% who thought it would have made this worse. A quarter (25%) thought it would make no difference and 19% did not know.

Figure 10.1: Perceived impact of Scotland’s transition to net zero on people’s quality of life

Q. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view?

Base: All respondents (4,055)

Those more likely than average to say the transition to net zero would improve people’s quality of life, both in five years’ time and by 2045, included: respondents from minority ethnic backgrounds, young respondents aged 16 to 34, those who thought climate change poses an immediate problem, women and graduates (Figure 10.2).

Figure 10.2: Groups more likely to think Scotland’s transition to net zero will improve quality of life

Q. I expect that Scotland’s ongoing transition to net zero will have improved people’s quality of life in my local area….

Base: All respondents (4,055)

Meanwhile, those more likely than average to say it would make people’s quality of life worse included: those who thought climate change is not a problem or does not exist, men, and those living in rural or energy hub areas (Figure 10.3).

Figure 10.3: Groups more likely to think Scotland’s transition to net zero will make quality of life worse

Q. I expect that Scotland’s ongoing transition to net zero will have made people’s quality of life in my local area worse….

Base: All respondents (4,055)

Those more likely than average to say they did not know if it would make a difference to quality of life were respondents who knew a little or nothing at all about climate change, women and respondents aged 35 and over.

Those who said they knew at least a fair amount about climate change were more likely to have a view either way on whether people’s quality of life would improve or get worse as a result of the net zero transition – 35% thought it would improve in the next five years (compared to 32% overall) and 48% thought it would improve by 2045 (compared to 44% overall). Meanwhile 15% of this group thought people’s quality of life would get worse in five years’ time (compared to 12% overall) and 13% thought it would be worse by 2045 (compared to 11% overall).

Impact of net zero on the availability of jobs

Views on whether the transition to net zero would have a positive or negative impact on the availability of jobs across Scotland were mixed. Almost one in five respondents (18%) thought the transition to net zero would increase the number of jobs in their local area in five years’ time, while 16% thought it would reduce the number of jobs. The remainder, a majority, said it would make no difference (42%) or that they did not know (25%) (Figure 10.4).

A similar pattern was found when respondents were asked about the impact of Scotland’s net zero transition on the availability of jobs in their local area by 2045 – 22% thought the number of jobs would increase and 17% thought this would reduce, while 33% thought it would make no difference and 28% did not know.

Figure 10.4 Perceived impact of net zero on the availability of jobs

Q. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view?

Base: All respondents: 5 years’ time (4,064); by 2045 (4,054)

The groups most likely to think the transition to net zero would increase or reduce the number of jobs in their local area, both in five years’ time and by 2045, largely correspond to those who thought it would improve or worsen people’s quality of life, discussed earlier in this chapter.

Impact of net zero on the availability of jobs by job sector

Respondents working in the energy and utilities sector (excluding oil and gas) and in retail or sales were more likely than average to say that the transition to net zero would increase the number of jobs in their local area, both in five years’ time and by 2045. In contrast, those working in the oil and gas and engineering sectors were more likely than average to say it would reduce the number of jobs.

Among those working in energy and utilities (excluding oil and gas), almost half (45%) thought the number of jobs in their local area would increase in five years’ time as a result of the transition to net zero (compared to 18% overall) and 44% expected they would increase by 2045 (compared to 22%). Three in ten (30%) of those working in retail or sales thought the number of jobs would increase in five years’ time and 36% thought they would increase by 2045.

Those working in health were more likely than average to say the transition to net zero would increase the number of jobs in their area in five years’ time (23%, compared to 18% overall), while those working in education were more likely than average to say the number of jobs would increase by 2045 (27%, compared to 22% overall).

Meanwhile, among those working in oil and gas, two thirds (67%) expected the number of jobs in their local area to have reduced in five years’ time (compared to 16% overall) with a similar proportion (65%) expecting this would happen by 2045 (compared to 17%). Almost a quarter (24%) of those working in engineering thought the number of jobs in their local area would have reduced in five years’ time due to the net zero transition, and 27% thought this would happen by 2045.

Those working in agriculture were also more likely than average to say that the transition to net zero would reduce the number of jobs in their local area by 2045 (30%, compared to 17% overall).

The impact of the transition to net zero on employment

Respondents working either full-time or part-time were asked if they expected Scotland’s transition to net zero to affect their job. Almost half (46%) thought their job would not be affected, while 29% said it would require changes in the future (Figure 10.5). Seven per cent said their job had already changed and 4% thought it would not exist in the future. Just over one in ten (13%) did not know if their job would be affected.

Figure 10.5: Perceived future impact of net zero on employment

Q: To what extent, if at all, do you expect Scotland’s transition to net zero to affect your job?

Base: All working full-time or part-time (1,835)

Those more likely than average to say their job would not be affected in the future by the transition to net zero included those with household incomes of £52,000 and above (50%, compared to 46% overall) and graduates (49%).

Those with household incomes of less than £52,000 were more likely than average to say that their jobs would require some changes in the future (32%, compared to 29%).

In terms of job sector, respondents working in the transport and logistics sector  and men were more likely than average to say their job would require changes in the future (51% and 32% respectively, compared to 29% overall), while those working in agriculture or construction were more likely than average to say their job had already changed (20% and 18% respectively, compared to 7% overall).

Those employed in the oil and gas sector were particularly likely to think their jobs were at risk due to the transition to net zero. Almost half (47%) of this group expected their job would not exist in the future, compared to just 4% overall. Although not to the same degree as those in the oil and gas sector, those working in agriculture (10%), living in energy hub areas (7%) and men (7%) were also more likely than average to say their job would not exist.

Perceived consequences of job changes as a result of the transition to net zero

Those respondents whose job had already changed or expected it would change in the future due to the transition to net zero (including those who said their job would no longer exist) were asked what they personally expected to do as a result, if anything.

While a third (34%) said they would not have to do anything differently as a result of any changes, around six in ten (58%) said they expected the changes would have an impact in relation to their job. For example, one in five (21%) thought they would have to retrain or undertake training in order to work in the future. Fifteen per cent said they would retire or no longer work and 14% said they would have to look for another job in a different sector or industry (Figure 10.6).

Figure 10.6: Perceived consequences of job changes

Q. What do you personally expect to do as a result of these changes in relation to your job? Please select all that apply

Base: All whose job will be affected by the transition to net zero (731)

Those working in the oil and gas sector or living in energy hub areas were more likely than average to say they would need to look for work in a different sector or industry (55% and 25%, respectively, compared to 14% overall) or that they would need to move outside of Scotland in order to work (38% and 11%, compared to 6%).

To assess the future support needs of those who said they would need to find work in a different sector, retrain, or move to another part of Scotland, this group were asked if they felt they had access to the support they needed to help them make these changes. As shown in Figure 10.7, most respondents (60%) said they had access to training and support, though 35% said they would require more to make the changes needed. Three in ten (30%) said they did not have access to any of the training and support they needed.

Figure 10.7: Access to support and training to make changes to job

Q: Do you currently have access to the support and training you would need to make these changes in relation to your job?

Base: All whose job will be affected by the transition to net zero (97)

Graduates were more likely than non-graduates to say they had access to all the support and training they needed (33%, compared to 20%). There were no significant differences by job sector.