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Scotland National Strategy for Economic Transformation: evidence paper

This Evidence Paper presents evidence on the structure and performance of Scotland’s economy, and identifies areas where the new National Strategy for Economic Transformation must take action to deliver transformational improvements to Scotland’s economic performance.

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Charts and Tables

Charts

Figure 2.1.1 - Scotland GDP Growth, 2000 to 2021

Figure 2.1.2 - GDP per Head in OECD Countries, 2019

Figure 2.2.1 - Scotland Productivity (Output per Hour) Trends, 1998 to 2018

Figure 2.2.2 - OECD Countries GDP per hour worked (US$, PPP, 2017)

Figure 2.2.3 - Scotland Productivity (Output per Hour) Trends by Broad Industry Group (Real Terms)

Figure 2.2.4 - Scotland Productivity Levels (GVA (£) per Hour) by Broad Industry Group (Current Prices), 2018

Figure 2.3.1 - Changing Structure of Scotland's Economy, Share of GVA by Broad Sector, 1951 to 2017

Figure 2.3.2 - Structure of Scotland's Economy: GVA by Sector, 2017

Figure 2.4.1 - Scotland Employment Trends, 2012 to 2021

Figure 2.4.2 - Employment rate (Per cent) (16-64 years) Scotland by equality characteristic

Figure 2.4.3 - Scotland's Employment by Industry, 2017

Figure 2.5.1 - Gross Median Weekly Full-time Pay; Scotland 2005-2021

Figure 2.5.2 - Proportion of employees earning below the real living wage, 2012-2021

Figure 2.6.1 - Scotland GVA Per Capita by Regional Economic Partnership Area

Figure 2.6.2 - Proportion of Workless Households by Scottish Local Authority Areas, 2020

Figure 2.7.1 - Total number of private sector businesses (registered and unregistered) in Scotland by sector

Figure 2.7.2 - Share of businesses, employment and turnover by size, Scotland, 2020

Figure 2.7.3 - Total number of private sector businesses in Scotland by size

Figure 2.7.4 - Number of registered private sector businesses in Scotland by broad sector

Figure 3.1.1 - Productivity and wellbeing economy framework

Figure 3.1.2 - Productivity & Wellbeing Relationship

Figure 3.1.3 - Relationship between productivity and weekly pay by sector (SIC Section)

Figure 3.1.4 - Real GVA per hour by Broad Industry Grouping, £ per hour

Figure 3.1.5 - Relationship between high performing tradeable sub-sectors (SIC division) in both productivity (GVA per head) and employment (top 25% of total industries

Figure 3.1.6 - Relationship between tradeable sub-sectors (SIC division) that perform poorly in productivity (GVA per head) (bottom 25% of total industries) but highly in employment (top 25% of total industries)

Figure 3.1.5 - Relationship between high performing non-tradeable sub-sectors (SIC division) in both productivity (GVA per head) and employment (top 25% of total industries

Figure 3.1.9 - Productivity growth by broad sector

Figure 3.1.6 - Real GVA per Worker by business size, 2010-2018

Figure 3.1.7 - Nominal GVA per hour, by ITL3 area, 2019 (smoothed; index, UK = 100)

Figure 3.1.8 - Gross Expenditure on Research and Development across the OECD

Figure 3.1.9 - Higher Education Expenditure on Research and Development across the OECD

Figure 3.1.10 - Business Enterprise Expenditure on Research and Development across the OECD

Figure 3.1.11 - Share of Innovation active businesses in Scotland, 2016 to 2018

Figure 3.1.12 - Trends in Scotland's Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Figure 3.1.13 - Comparing Scotland's GFCF as % of GDP against OECD Countries

Figure 3.1.14 - Business Investment as a share of GDP (%) – select OECD countries

Figure 3.1.15 - Business Investment as a share of GDP (%) – select OECD countries

Figure 3.1.16 - Public Sector (Government) Investment as a share of GDP (%) – 10 year average

Figure 3.1.17 - Small and Medium Sized Business Lending – 2011 Q3-2021 Q2

Figure 3.1.18 - In what ways, if any, have digital technologies impacted on your business productivity, innovation and low carbon working? (%)

Figure 3.1.19 - Percentage of households in areas served by Full Fibre (end of 2019)

Figure 3.1.20 - Adoption of key digital technologies (%) by Scottish businesses

Figure 3.1.21 - How equipped staff as a whole are in terms of skills to meet the business' digital technology needs (%)

Figure 3.1.22 - Is your business taking any action to develop your current employees' digital technology skills, for example providing or investing in training?

Figure 3.1.23 - Percentage of Public / Active Transport as Usual Method of Travel to Work

Figure 3.1.24 - Percentage of adults very or fairly satisfied with public transport

Figure 3.1.25 - Percentage of total passenger kms by car

Figure 3.1.26 - Density of Rail Network, KM/1000 sq KM

Figure 3.1.27 - Density of rail network: KM/1000 population

Figure 3.1.28 - Outbound international freight (by weight) from UK port 2000 – 2020

Figure 3.1.29 - Cargo handled by Major Scottish Ports by direction and partner region (2017-20, average tonnage ['000])

Figure 3.1.30 - Air freight lifted at UK airports (tonnes)

Figure 3.2.1 - Percentage of employees earning below the real living wage (18 years and above), Scotland

Figure 3.2.2 - Percentage Distribution of employees earning below the real living wage (18 years and above) across sectors, 2012, 2016, and 2021, Scotland

Figure 3.2.3 – Employees Earning Less than the Real Living Wage by Sector – 2019

Figure 3.2.4 - Low-wage earners as a proportion of all employees (excluding apprentices) 2018

Figure 3.2.5 - Palma ratio of income inequality 1992-97 to 2017-20, Scotland

Figure 3.2.6 - Gender Pay gap for Median Full-time and All Hourly Earnings (excluding overtime) Scotland and UK April 1997 to 2021

Figure 3.2.7 - Ethnicity and disability Pay Gap

Figure 3.2.8 - Proportion of Children (0 - 15 years) living in low-income families by Local Authority Areas: 2019-20

Figure 3.2.9 - Regional Inequality in GDP per head: 1998-2019

Figure 3.3.1 - Total Scottish GVA in each scenario (£billion)

Figure 3.3.2 - Total number of Scottish jobs in each scenario

Figure 3.3.3 - Index of car KM driven in Scotland, 1993-2019 (2019=100)

Figure 3.3.4 - Value of Scotland's Exports by Industry

Figure 3.3.5 - Scottish International Exports as a share of GDP, 1998-2020 (%)

Figure 3.3.6 - Exports as a percentage of GDP; selected small, advanced economies, 2018

Figure 3.3.7 - Scotland's trade performance in key markets

Figure 3.3.8 - Scotland's trade performance by economic sector

Figure 3.3.9 - HMRC Regional trade in goods statistics disaggregated by smaller geographical areas: 2016- 2019 (1)

Figure 3.3.10 - HMRC Regional trade in goods statistics disaggregated by smaller geographical areas: 2016- 2019(2)

Figure 3.4.1 - Scotland's Total Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) rate

Figure 3.4.2 - Total Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) rate across Selected OECD Countries, 2020

Figure 3.4.3 - Scotland Total Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) by Gender, 2006 to 2020

Figure 3.4.4 - Number of Business in Scotland per 10,000 adults by region, 2020

Figure 3.4.5 - Start-up Survival Rate in Scotland, 2004 to 2018

Figure 3.4.6 - 3-Year and 5-Year Survival Rate: Scotland compared with OECD Countries, 2018

Figure 3.4.7 - Trends in High Growth Firms in Scotland

Figure 3.4.8 - High growth firms across time by sector (% of total firms with 10+ employees)

Figure 3.4.9 - VAT/PAYE business registrations (business births per 10,000) adults 2018

Figure 3.4.10 - High Growth Registered Private Sector Enterprises as a share of all VAT/PAYE registered Private Sector Enterprises

Figure 3.5.1 - Vacancy and Skills, Scotland, 2015, 2017 and 2020

Figure 3.5.2 - Percentage (%) of employers reporting a skills shortage vacancy, by sector Scotland: 2017, 2020

Figure 3.5.3 - Incidence and density of skills gaps over time by country (Per cent)

Figure 3.5.4 - Percentage of population (25 to 64 years) with low or no qualification, 2004 to 2020

Figure 3.5.5 - Proportion of population (25 to 64 years) with at least tertiary education

Figure 3.5.6 - Scotland's Demographic Trends Population by age group in Scotland, mid-1993 to mid-2043

Figure 3.5.7 - Percentage of sector workers aged 50-64 years

Figure 3.5.8 - Number and percentage of foreign born workers in total sector employment, Scotland 2019

Figure 3.5.9 - Percentage of population (all ages) which are foreign born, foreign born employment rate (16-64 years)

Figure 3.5.10 - Inactivity rate (16-64), Scotland and UK, 2004 to 2020

Figure 3.5.11 - Inactivity by reason Scotland and UK (percentage of all inactive 16-64 years) 2010-2021

Figure 3.5.12 - Economic Inactivity rate (16-64 years) across selected advanced economies

Figure 3.5.13 - Percentage of people in employment defined as 'matched', 16 to 64, UK, 4 quarter rolling averages

Figure 3.5.14 - Percentage of people in employment defined as 'mismatched', 16 to 64, UK, 4 quarter rolling averages

Figure 3.5.15 - Underutilised staff in Scotland as a proportion of workforce by sector, 16 to 64

Figure 4.1 - Scotland's GDP baseline, 2019 = 100

Figure 4.2 - GDP and Employment Growth and Transformation Scenario

Figure 5.1.1 - Inclusive Growth and Development Framework

Tables

Table 3.1.1 - Number of FDI Deals in Scotland by Sector, 2016 to 2020

Table 3.1.2 - Fixed Broadband Connectivity at Different Speeds

Table 3.1.3 - Indoor premise 4G coverage by UK nation (all operators)

Table 3.1.4 - Distribution of 4G Not Spots - UK

Table 3.3.1 - Summary of UK and Scottish content for all projects considered in the analysis

Table 3.4.1 - Constraints to Entrepreneurship in Scotland: Summary of Evidence

Table 3.4.2 - Obstacles to business success by business size, SME Employers, 2019

Table 5.1.1 - Top ranking countries on the WEF Inclusive Development Index (2018) and their Global Competitiveness Index ranks (2019)

Contact

Email: Cornilius.Chikwama@gov.scot

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