Scenario modelling 2023 fuel poverty levels under 2019 fuel prices
This publication provides the results from scenario modelling of fuel poverty rates in 2023 under 2019 energy prices.
Discussion
The results from the scenario modelling indicate that had fuel prices remained at 2019 levels the fuel poverty rate in 2023 would be around 19% (472,000 households), a 15 percentage point reduction from the current rate. Furthermore, the extreme fuel poverty rate would be around 7.2% (184,000 households), a reduction of around 12 percentage points from current levels. This is shown in table 1 and table 2.
|
2023 base data |
Scenario model with 2019 prices |
Reduction |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Households in fuel poverty 000's |
861 |
472 |
-389 |
|
Fuel Poverty rate |
34% |
19% |
-15 percentage points |
|
2023 base data |
Scenario model with 2019 prices |
Reduction |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Households in extreme fuel poverty 000's |
491 |
184 |
-308 |
|
Extreme Fuel Poverty rate |
19% |
7% |
-12 percentage points |
It should be noted that this analysis uses 2019 fuel prices while holding all other factors from the 2023 SHCS such as income, housing costs, and Minimum Income Standard household budgets at their 2023 levels. This means this scenario should be read as what fuel poverty rates would be in 2023 if fuel prices returned to 2019 levels, with all other factors being equal.
Contact
shcs@gov.scot