Review of the Amended Economic Link License Condition

Scottish pelagic processing industry

Graph 11 shows the mackerel and herring tonnage bought by the four key Scottish pelagic processors from Scottish vessels, between 2015 and 2024. Between 2015 and 2024, these four companies accounted for the purchase and processing of 97% and 98% of the mackerel and herring tonnage, respectively, landed by Scottish vessels into Scotland. As such, they are being used as a proxy for the Scottish pelagic processing industry. Three of these companies (Lunar, Denholm Seafoods and Northbay Pelagic) are based in Peterhead, whilst one (Pelagia Shetland) is based in the Shetland Islands. 2024 data is provisional and subject to change.

^ Provisional

Mackerel

Purchasing levels of mackerel have been relatively consistent, with annual fluctuations, since 2015, apart from a noticeable dip in 2019. Tonnage has been increasing since 2022 and reached a 10-year high in 2024. Furthermore, the Scottish pelagic processing industry has been increasing their buying share of the total mackerel tonnage landed by the Scottish pelagic fleet, from an average of 45% in between 2015 to 2022, to 55% in 2024. This suggests that the increases in tonnage processed are not just a result of changes in the TAC, or seasonal catch fluctuations, but due to a greater proportion of mackerel being landed into Scotland by Scottish pelagic vessels.

Herring

Purchasing levels of herring remained fairly consistent between 2015 and 2023, with a slight dip in 2019. There was a noticeable increase in the tonnage bought in 2024, with purchasing levels also reaching a 10-year high. Between 2015 and 2022, the Scottish pelagic industry maintained their average buying share of the total herring tonnage landed by the Scottish pelagic fleet at 55%. This increased to 64% in 2024, further suggesting that the increases in tonnages processed seen by Scottish processors is due to Scottish pelagic vessels landing a greater proportion of their catch into Scotland.

Capacity

The true capacity of the key Scottish pelagic processors is unknown. Using the purchasing levels of the processors as a proxy suggests that there was spare processing capacity within the industry, given that processors have increased the annual total tonnage of mackerel and herring processed by nearly 40,000 tonnes since 2022. However, the extent to which processors would be able to deal with a continued, sustained increase is unknown. The issue of processing capacity was one that was often brought up in stakeholder interviews conducted by government officials in early 2025, and is explored in further detail in Section 4, below.

Overall Trends:

• Since January 2023, there has been an increase in the proportion of herring and mackerel tonnage and value landed into Scotland.
• Very little change in demersal fishing behaviour. Typically, more than 90% of demersal tonnage and value from Scottish vessels is landed into Scotland, both pre and post economic link amendment.
• Peterhead and Lerwick ports have been the main beneficiaries of these increased landings.
• Some pelagic vessels have amended their behaviour to meet the landings target element of the amended economic link provisions.
• In 2023, landings of the demersal species (of the 8 species covered by economic link) totalled 90,000 tonnes, with a real value of £217 million, into Scotland.
• Herring landings into Scotland totalled 37,000 tonnes, with a real value of £25 million, whilst mackerel landings totalled 101,000 tonnes, with a real value of £130 million, into Scotland.
• In 2024, landings of the demersal species (of the 8 species covered by economic link) totalled 81,000 tonnes, with a real value of £196 million, into Scotland.
• Herring landings into Scotland totalled 55,000 tonnes, with a value of £33 million, whilst mackerel landings totalled 110,000 tonnes, with a value of £154 million, into Scotland.
• Total Scottish processing volumes of mackerel and herring have been increasing since 2019, with provisional figures showing around 160,000 tonnes was processed in 2024, up from around 80,000 tonnes in 2019, and 120,000 tonnes in 2022.
• The proportion of Scottish caught mackerel and herring that primary Scottish processors are buying has also increased since 2019.

Pelagic Price Per Tonne^[17]

• The price difference for herring between Scotland and abroad was £74 in 2023, and £70 in 2024.
• The difference for mackerel between Scotland and abroad was £111 in 2023, and £154 in 2024.
• Both in Scotland, and abroad, the real price of herring has fallen since 2022, whilst the price for mackerel has increased.
• Norway continues to offer higher PPTs than Scotland, following the historical trend.
• In both Scotland and Norway, real mackerel PPTs have risen in 2024, whilst real herring PPTs have fallen since 2022.
• Preliminary analysis suggests that the difference in PPT for mackerel between Norway and Peterhead rose to £191 (14%) in 2024, from £153 (12%) in 2023. For herring, the price difference decreased from £76 (11%) in 2023, to £48 (8%) in 2024.
• Shetland saw its mackerel PPT difference to Norway increase from £113 (9%) in 2023 to £161 (11%) in 2024. For herring, the price difference decreased from £51 (7%) in 2023, to £29 (5%) in 2024.