Review of the Amended Economic Link License Condition

Scottish landings into Norway

Norway is the primary alternative market for Scottish pelagic vessels looking to land mackerel and herring out with Scotland. As such, further analysis has been done looking into the prices received by Scottish pelagic vessels landing into this market since the economic link licence conditions were implemented. Note that this analysis differs from the analysis carried out in the BRIA, as this focuses solely on landings of Scottish vessels into Norway, compared to all landings of Scottish vessels abroad. Norwegian price data has been gathered from the Norwegian fisheries website, Norges Sildesalgslag, and converted using monthly ONS exchange rates^[14], with all figures presented as 2024 prices (£).

Mackerel

The real price per tonne of mackerel (Graph 7) was similar in Scotland and Norway between 2015 and 2021. Prices tended to follow similar trends, with mackerel typically receiving a slightly higher price in Norway than in Scotland. Between 2015 and 2021, the real PPT in Norway was, on average, £32 higher than Scotland. Since 2022, there has been greater divergence between the two price points, with Norway commanding a higher price. The real price difference between Scotland and Norway, in 2024, was £197, whilst the average price difference between 2022 and 2024 was £155. Since 2020, the real price of mackerel has risen in both Scotland and Norway, increasing 15% in Scotland and 26% in Norway.

^ Provisional

* 2024 prices

There exists a slight difference in price between landing into the fishing districts of Shetland and Peterhead, the two main destinations for Scottish vessels landing herring or mackerel into Scotland. Mackerel typically receives a slightly higher price in Shetland than in Peterhead, although both districts offer prices lower than Norway. In 2023, the average real PPT received by Scottish vessels for mackerel landing into Peterhead was £1,273; in Shetland, it was £1,313, and in Norway it was £1,426. This is a real price difference of £153, or 12%, between Norway and Peterhead, and £113, or 9%, between Norway and Shetland. In 2024, the average PPT received in Peterhead increased by 11%, to £1,409. In Shetland, the PPT rose to £1,439, an increase of 10%, whilst in Norway, the PPT rose to £1,600, an increase of 12%. This resulted in a price difference of £191, or 14% between Norway and Peterhead, and £161, or 11%, between Norway and Shetland.

Herring

The price per tonne of herring (Graph 8) was similar in Scotland and Norway between 2015 and 2018, during which time there was a significant spike, and subsequent dip, in the price. The average real difference between the two price points, between 2015 and 2018, was £29. In 2019, Norwegian and Scottish herring prices diverged, and Norway has offered a higher PPT since. Prices for both countries initially rose between 2019 and 2022, although they been decreasing since 2022. The real price difference between Scotland and Norway, in 2024, was £69. The average real price difference between 2019 and 2024 was £78, whilst the average real price difference since the introduction of the economic link license condition changes is £67. The falling herring price in Scotland and Norway has not reduced the real value of herring landed into Scotland, which provisionally reached a record high of £33 million in 2024^[15]. This is largely as a result of an increase in the TAC, and therefore quantity landed, of herring in 2024.

^ Provisional

* 2024 prices

In 2023, herring landed by Scottish vessels into Peterhead received an average PPT of £665. In Shetland, the PPT for herring was £690, whilst in Norway it was £741. In 2024, prices decreased in all three locations, falling by 6% in Peterhead, to £625; 7% in Shetland, to £644; and 9% in Norway, to £674. The average real price difference in price between Norway and Peterhead fell from £76, or 11%, in 2023, to £48, or 8%, in 2024. In Shetland, the average real price difference fell from £51, or 7%, in 2023, to £29, or 5%, in 2024.

Norwegian vessel landings

Graphs 9 and 10 compares the PPT for mackerel and herring received by Scottish vessels, and Norwegian vessels, landing into Norway^[16]. For mackerel (Graph 9), Norwegian vessels landing into Norway typically received a PPT similar to, or higher than, Scottish vessels landing into Norway between 2015 and 2020. From 2021 onwards, Scottish vessels landing into Norway received higher prices than Norwegian vessels, although the gap between these two price points narrowed in 2023 and 2024. In 2024, Scottish vessels received £1,600 per tonne for mackerel landing into Norway, whilst Norwegian vessels received £1,534.

For herring (Graph 10), Norwegian vessels landing into Norway received a lower PPT, compared to Scottish vessels landing into Norway, between 2016 and 2022. There was a marked increase in the price difference per tonne received by these two fleets in 2021, with Scottish vessels receiving £792 per tonne, compared to £619 received by Norwegian vessels. However, the price difference reduced in 2023 and 2024, with both fleet groups receiving a similar price per tonne.

^ Provisional

* 2024 prices

^ Provisional

* 2024 prices