Proposed Northern Shelf Cod Fisheries Management Plan

Background

Stock

The Northern Shelf cod stock consists of three spatially overlapping substocks: Northwestern, Southern and Viking (see Figure 1 below). When the substocks are spawning during Q1, the Northwestern substock incorporates cod in parts of ICES divisions 4.a and 4.b, and all of 6.a; the Viking substock includes parts of ICES divisions 4.a and 4.b, and all of 3.a.20; and the southern substock incorporates cod in parts of ICES division 4.b, and all of 4.c and 7.d. Outwith the spawning period (during Q2-4), ICES assume that cod from different substocks mix, although the extent of this mixing is not yet known.

Although there are no apparent genetic differences between the Northwestern and Southern substocks, there are differences in growth and maturity, in addition to relatively little mixing of cod between divisions 4.a and 4.b. As already noted, the Northwestern substock also encompasses cod in Division 6.a; the Viking substock includes ICES division 3.a.20; and the southern substock includes ICES division 7.d. The North Sea spawning grounds of the northwestern substock are found along the north east coast of Scotland, in the Moray Firth and around the Shetland Islands. It should also be noted that there is evidence for a separate resident cod stock in the Clyde area, but these fish are currently included in the Northwestern substock area for assessment and advice purposes due to lack of data.

Cod is a commercially important demersal fish species, preferring depths down to around 200 m. In the North Sea and West of Scotland, cod spawn during the first quarter of the year, when the sea temperature is lowest, typically over coarse sand in areas with low current velocity. The highest concentrations of juveniles tend to be found in inshore waters. These young cod grow extremely quickly compared to cod from more northerly (Arctic) stocks, being fully recruited to the fishery within two years and reaching up to 80 cm in length by the age of four. Adult cod show a variety of migratory patterns with some migrating annually between spawning grounds and offshore feeding grounds, while others remain resident in a particular area (typically inshore) all year round. Cod is a predatory fish species, feeding principally on fish (including young cod) and crustaceans. They are also an important prey species. Herring, whiting, grey gurnards and other cod are known to prey on 0-group (juvenile) cod, while at older ages, their most significant natural predators are harbour porpoises and grey seals.

Up until recently, Northern Shelf cod was assessed as two separate stocks in UK Waters – the North Sea and the West of Scotland. The catches and biomass of Northern Shelf cod have undergone large changes over the last fifty years. During the 1960s and 1970s, during a phase known as the ‘gadoid outburst’, productivity for cod found in the North Sea in particular (and other gadoids such as haddock and whiting) was exceptionally high and for a number of years the stocks supported a very high level of catch. Following many years of high exploitation, the total North Sea cod catches and spawning stock biomass (SSB) are now at lower levels. Recruitment in all substocks has also significantly declined and is lower than previously expected. There is strong evidence to suggest that the North Sea ecosystem has experienced a number of regime shifts (during both the 1980s and 1990s) and that cod recruitment has been negatively impacted by these changes in climate and the environment.

Fishing mortality is much reduced compared to the historically high values experienced by the stocks, and the SSB in both the Northwestern and Viking substocks has increased substantially since the historical low values of the early 2000s. However, the latest advice from ICES now puts both substocks below Btrigger, albeit well above Blim. The Southern substock is below Blim.

Following a significant dip in the health of the North Sea stock in 2006, management authorities took a range of actions to both improve the overall state of the stock, and also to support fishing vessels to be able to continue to operate in the mixed fishery when a highly restrictive cod TAC was in place. These management measures are explored further below.

Whilst the previous West of Scotland component of the Northern Shelf cod stock is now incorporated into this wider grouping, for many years the West of Scotland cod stock was managed separately. Similar to the North Sea component, the health of the West of Scotland cod stock fluctuated, leading to remedial action being undertaken by fisheries managers. Between 2012-18 the fishery was limited through a by-catch condition in licences, restricting the volume of cod which could be landed per trip. Between 2019-2023 a bycatch TAC was set. These measures are explored further below.

Location

The biological Northern Shelf stock is found in ICES areas 4 (North Sea), 6.a (West of Scotland), 7.d (Eastern Channel) and 3.a.20 (Skagerrak). For management purposes, there are three separate TAC areas, denoted by ICES codes COD/2A3AX4 (North Sea, Skagerrak, and EU and UK waters of Division 2.a), COD/5BE6A (West of Scotland), and COD/07D (eastern English Channel). This FMP is only intended to apply to fishing activity within UK waters in the North Sea, West of Scotland and Eastern Channel (ICES areas 4, 6.a and 7.d).

The figures below show the location of the ICES areas, along with the known distribution of the Northern Shelf cod stock within areas 4, 6.a and 7.d, according to the latest available survey data.

Fishery

Northern Shelf cod, consisting in UK waters of TAC area from the North Sea, Eastern Channel^[6] and West of Scotland, are caught in mixed demersal fisheries along with whiting, haddock, saithe and other species. The stock is typically caught by demersal-targeting fleets, although a small amount (6%) of North Sea cod was landed by shellfish-targeting vessels between 2019 and 2022: However, this appears predominantly to be bycatch due to the low value share cod represents to shellfish-targeting vessels. The North Sea area of the Northern Shelf is, proportionally, much larger and sees much more activity than the West of Scotland, which is reflected in the respective tonnages and landed values derived from the areas. This is understandable given the historic ‘zero TAC’ that was in place for West of Scotland cod, which meant that cod could not be landed at that point in time.

Analysis was undertaken of the UK fishing fleet catching North Sea and West of Scotland cod in UK waters. Between 2015 and 2022, on average 97% of North Sea cod was caught in area 4.a, with 2% caught in area 4.b, and 1% caught in 4.c. Less than 1% was caught in area 7.d. Between 2015 and 2021, the UK fleet accounted for, on average, 50% of the North Sea cod landings. The remaining 50% was split between the Norwegian fleet (~16%), and the EU fleet (~33%), in which the Danish, German, Dutch and Swedish fleets caught the majority.

For West of Scotland Cod, the UK fleet caught an average of 75% of the catch between 2015 and 2021, whilst the EU and other foreign fleets accounted for the remaining quarter. The EU fleet accounted for an average of 22% of the catch within the same period, with key players being the French and Irish fleets. The Norwegian fleet accounted for the remaining 3%, although their share has been declining since 2015 and they recorded no catches of West of Scotland cod in 2021.

Analysis of the gear usage of the UK fleet shows that, on average between 2015 and 2022, 85% of North Sea cod caught was landed by trawls, whilst seine nets accounted for, on average, 13% of the catch. Hooks and lines, and other gear types, accounted for the remaining. For the same period, West of Scotland cod were almost exclusively caught using trawls, which accounted for 98% of the catch. The remaining catch was attributable to seine nets.

Further analysis of UK fisheries data using Seafish fleet segmentation^[7] shows that the North Sea and West of Scotland (NSWOS) demersal fleet, and the sub-groups within this fleet, dominated the North Sea and West of Scotland cod fishing efforts between 2015 and 2022. For North Sea cod, the NSWOS demersal pair trawl seine and over-24m fleet groups accounted for a 60% share, split roughly evenly between each other. The NSWOS demersal under-24m over 300kW fleet and the NSWOS demersal seiners fleet shared 30% of the catch between themselves, whilst the remaining 10% of the catch was attributable to the North Sea Nephrops over 300kW fleet, NSWOS demersal under-24m under 300kW fleet, and a miscellaneous group of other fleets.

The West of Scotland cod fishery is more concentrated than the North Sea fishery, with the NSWOS demersal over-24m fleet accounting for a 70% share of the tonnage caught between 2015 – 2022. The NSWOS demersal under-24m over 300kW and NSWOS demersal pair trawl seine made up 25% of the share (split 13% and 12% respectively, whilst the remaining 5% was attributable to the NSWOS demersal under-24m under 300kW and other miscellaneous fleets.

The average price per tonne of both North Sea and West of Scotland cod increased steadily between 2015 and 2022, from around £1,900 to around £3,700. Whilst fish caught in the two areas typically command similar prices, North Sea cod tends to reach a slightly higher price, although the price gap peaked at £200 between them between 2015 and 2022.

Recently, falling tonnages have led to decreases in value landed, despite the price increasing to a period high (2015-2022). The landed value of North Sea cod increased from ~£30 million in 2015 to £50 million in 2018, fuelled by increases in both the tonnage landed (15,000t in 2015 to 21,500t in 2018) and the price per tonne (£1,900/tonne to £2,300/tonne in the same period). North Sea cod landed value has since declined, totalling £22 million in 2021, primarily caused by a decrease in the tonnage caught (21,000 tonnes in 2018 to 6,500 tonnes in 2021) whilst the price per tonne has continued to increase. The figures in 2022 saw a slight increase in both the tonnage and value of North Sea cod landed (7,000 tonnes and £26 million, respectively), whilst the price per tonne has hit a period high of £3,780.

Conversely, more recent increases in the tonnage landed have driven increases in the value landed, which have been amplified by the increasing price per tonne. West of Scotland cod has seen a sustained increase in landed value since 2019, with figures remaining around the £3-3.5 million mark (with a slight dip in 2020), despite landed values failing to surpass £500,000 between 2015 and 2018. This increase has been fuelled by a drastic increase in the volume of annual tonnage caught, from 170 tonnes in 2015 to 900 tonnes in 2022. Rising prices have also helped increase the value landed from West of Scotland cod, with the price per tonne almost doubling from ~£1,980/t in 2015 to £3,660 in 2022.

North Sea cod is almost exclusively landed into the UK by the UK fleet, with, on average, 97% of the catch landed into the UK between 2015 and 2022. The most significant foreign destination for North Sea cod for the same period was Denmark, which averaged 2% of the landings. Within the UK, the North and North East of Scotland received the majority of landings, notably into Peterhead and Shetland, which received an average of 53% and 28% between 2015 and 2022. Around 1% of the catch was landed into Northern England during the same period.

West of Scotland cod is also almost exclusively landed into the UK by the UK fleet, with, on average, only 1% being landed outwith the UK between 2015 and 2022. Within the UK, the majority of West of Scotland cod is landed into the North East and North West of Scotland, with Wick and Kinlochbervie receiving significant proportions of the catch (31% and 28% respectively), followed by Peterhead (22%) and Ullapool (13%).

For the fleets that target the fishery and the ports into which it is landed, North Sea cod is more notable than West of Scotland cod – again, this is understandable due to the previous zero TAC that was in place in the West of Scotland. North Sea cod makes up 28% of the total landed value, and 18% of the total tonnage landed, for the NSWOS demersal pair trawl seine fleet. For the other NSWOS fleet sub-groups that are active in the fishery, the species typically represents 13% to 19% of the fleets’ landed value, and 10% to 15% of the fleets’ tonnage. For the ports into which North Sea cod is landed, it typically represents 10% of the ports landed value. The exceptions are Scalloway and Isles, and Cullivoe, where the species represents 29% and 19% of the respective ports’ landed value, despite only representing 11% and 3% of the total NS cod landed value in any port. Peterhead lands over 50% of the nationwide value derived from North Sea Cod, despite it representing only 11% of the port’s total value. Lerwick and Scrabster also attribute 10% of their total value to the species.

West of Scotland cod does not represent a notable species for any of the fleets that catch it, nor the ports into which it is landed, in terms of either tonnage or landed value – again, this reflects the previous zero TAC that was in place. The fishery, targeted by various NSWOS demersal fleets, represents around a 1% share of each fleet’s total landed value and tonnage. A similar trend is true of the ports into which West of Scotland cod is landed. Scrabster, Kinlochbervie and Peterhead land around 80% of the value of West of Scotland cod, despite it representing a very small proportion of the respective ports’ total value (2% for Scrabster, 3% for Kinlochbervie, and less than 1% for Peterhead).

Many of the fleets which derive a large proportion of their landed value from Northern Shelf cod, as well as the ports for whom the stock makes up a large part of their total value, are key employers in the fishing industry. Due to the relative sizes of the individual North Sea and West of Scotland cod fisheries, their impact on employment within the fishing industry is different. For the North Sea cod fishery in 2022, the NSWOS demersal pair trawl seine and NSWOS demersal seiners, for which Northern Shelf cod represented 28% and 19% of the fleets total landed value, accounted for 197 FTE and 339 FTE^[8], respectively. The NSWOS demersal under-24m over-300kW fleet accounted for 179 FTE in 2022, whilst the NSWOS demersal over-24m fleet supports 527 FTE. Furthermore, North Sea cod is a key species for the ports of Scalloway and Isles, and Cullivoe, which are key employers within their respective coastal regions. Whilst the exact impact of the North Sea cod fishery on these employment requirements is unclear, it is clear that the stock plays an important part in sustaining a number of fleets and ports, which are responsible for significant employment within the UK fishing industry.

Due to the size and relative significance of the West of Scotland cod fishery, it is unlikely that it has any significant impact on the employment needs of the fleets who target it, although it may be a key earner, and thus employment driver, for individual vessels within the fleet. This is reflective of the previous zero TAC that was in place for West of Scotland cod.