Proposed Northern Shelf Cod Fisheries Management Plan

Stock assessment and MSY

Scientific Advice

As set out in Section 3.2 of the JFS, the UK takes an evidence-based approach to fisheries management, making use of the best available scientific evidence. For the purpose of stock management and TAC setting, this tends to focus on the use of advice produced by ICES, although other sources of information, including data from the fishing industry, may also be used.

The following evidence has been collated from the most recent ICES assessment working group report (ICES 2024)^[9] and the associated ICES stock annex^[10].

ICES provides annual advice for Northern Shelf cod. ICES advice is organised according to categories, ranging from 1 (the most information available) to 6 (the least). Northern Shelf cod is a Category 1 stock which means that it is considered to have full age- and size-structured data on which to base an assessment, and that MSY reference points are available to provide a framework for management action.

Benchmark assessments are a tool used by ICES to peer-review and incorporate new science or evidence into the stock assessment process. They are part of the process which ensures that ICES advice is based on the best available scientific evidence. The Northern Shelf cod stock was the subject of a recent ICES benchmark assessment in 2023.

The benchmark process has resulted in a change to the assessment approach such that the whole Northern Shelf stock complex is now assessed in a single assessment model which accounts for the substock structure. This allows ICES to provide advice on current stock status and future catch options at the biological substock level.

Assessment of evidence

As set out above, Northern Shelf cod is a stock that has a high level of data available. On this basis, there is sufficient available scientific evidence for the relevant fisheries policy authorities to make annual MSY assessments of the Northern Shelf cod stock.

Whilst the available evidence is sufficient to enable an MSY assessment to be made, following on from the latest benchmarking exercise undertaken by ICES, there is further work planned in relation to stock genetics, which will enable the scientific model to be refined further. This work is important so that the most appropriate assessment and management methodology can be devised and implemented. This may also help ICES to move away from providing Northern Shelf cod catch advice based on the three substocks, and towards providing area-specific catch advice for Northern Shelf cod. This is important as it will support appropriate TAC setting according to the relevant health of the different biological substocks.

Following management action undertaken by the fisheries policy authorities and Coastal States partners over previous years, and also a result of the significant international scientific efforts to improve the science and assessment areas (including combining the North Sea and West of Scotland areas for assessment purposes), the evidence base underpinning the Northern Shelf cod stock is in a much stronger position than previously. However, the stock structure remains complex and this, alongside the fact that NS cod is caught as part of a mixed whitefish fishery, continues to make management challenging.

The situation is not uniform, however, based on the 2026 advice:

Northwestern substock (including West of Scotland area):

• SSB is currently estimated to be below the MSY Btrigger point,
• Fishing pressure is estimated to be above FMSY.

Viking substock:

• SSB is currently estimated to be below the MSY Btrigger point
• Fishing pressure is estimated to be above FMSY

Southern substock:

• SSB remains below Blim.
• Fishing pressure is estimated to be above FMSY.

Despite strong efforts from fisheries policy authorities and the fishing industry, fishing mortality for all three substocks remains above FMSY.

The policies within this FMP are focused on further management improvements in order to manage and contribute to restoring the stock above MSY levels.