No One Left Behind: evaluability assessment (national impact and economic evaluation)
This report presents the findings of an evaluability assessment for impact and economic evaluation of No One Left Behind at a national level. It considers feasibility, suitable methodological approaches and data and analytical requirements for future evaluations.
2. Introduction
A fair and inclusive labour market is essential to ensuring that everyone in Scotland can reach their potential. Yet, many people continue to face barriers to employment, contributing to high child poverty, persistent gender and disability employment gaps, and lower participation among parents, unpaid carers, and ethnic minorities (Scottish Government, 2024). Addressing these challenges is crucial not only for individuals and employers but also for Scotland’s overall economic resilience. To that end, the Scottish Government (SG) introduced No One Left Behind in 2019 (Scottish Government, 2022), a devolved approach to employability support that replaces the previous, centrally contracted provision. Through a person‑centred approach delivered locally, No One Left Behind aims to empower Local Employability Partnerships (LEPs) to tailor services to community needs, provide clear pathways into fair work, and ensure that people have a voice in shaping the support they receive.
No One Left Behind should be considered alongside the wider employability funding landscape. This landscape includes UK Government funds (Shared Prosperity Fund, Local Growth Fund), Scottish Government programmes (Whole Family Wellbeing Funding, Our Future Now Employability Programme, City Region Deals), and Local Authority (LA) contributions for these services. Additionally, No One Left Behind is best understood as an overarching approach rather than a single programme, enabling both flexibility and local variation in how services are designed and delivered.
To assess the impact and success of No One Left Behind, the Scottish Government is exploring how it should be evaluated going forward. To that end, Alma Economics has been commissioned to conduct an evaluability assessment to inform a Scotland-level impact and economic evaluation of No One Left Behind. The evaluability assessment aims to explore a range of methodological approaches and the data required to support them.
Our approach consisted of (i) a thorough desk-based review; (ii) scoping interviews with SG and No One Left Behind stakeholders; (iii) a refined Theory of Change (ToC), building on an earlier version produced by the Scottish Government, to place greater emphasis on service delivery; and (iv) recommendations on suitable evaluation strategies and data requirements, in line with HM Treasury’s Green Book and Magenta Book guidance.[1] Additional information about our approach can be found in the Methodology section.
2.1 Structure of this report
The remainder of this report is structured into the following chapters:
- Background provides an overview of how No One Left Behind operates in practice, including the mechanisms in place and key considerations.
- Methodology summarises the activities used in this research.
- Findings detail the results from stakeholder interviews, data mapping and assessment, and the refined ToC.
- Evaluation considerations outline the theoretical and practical options for the impact and economic evaluation, including control groups, quasi-experimental, and theory-based methods.
- Evaluation plan provides actionable steps for the future impact and economic evaluation.
- Annex 1 presents interview findings regarding the operational realities of No One Left Behind.
- Annex 2 includes the longlist of identified datasets.
- Annex 3 contains the tailored discussion guide used for stakeholder interviews.