Up-rating devolved Social Security assistance: multi criteria decision analysis - January 2024

A report setting out a multi-criteria decision analysis of the options available to the Scottish Government to uprate devolved social security assistance in 2024 to 2025.


1 Real value measures relative purchasing power accounting for price inflation. Comparing real values of benefit payments allows for comparisons over time, since in any given year £1 may not buy the same amount of goods or services as one year ago, due to price rises in the economy.

2 Social Security in Scotland: consultation - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3 By inflation we mean the change in the level of prices of goods and services. There are a number of different measures of inflation.

4 Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2022 - Office for Budget Responsibility (obr.uk)

5 Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

6 Beware Base Effects | National Statistical (ons.gov.uk)

7 Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2023 (obr.uk)

8 Monetary Policy Report - November 2023

9 Impact of increased cost of living on adults across Great Britain: July to October 2023 - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

10 CPIH-consistent inflation rate estimates for UK household groups - Office for National Statistics

11 Household Costs Indices for UK household groups: January 2022 to September 2023 - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

12 Scottish Government uprating policy paper and analytical report (September 2019)

13 The Green Book and accompanying guidance and documents - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

14 Green Book supplementary guidance: multi-criteria decision analysis - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

15 Shortcomings of the Retail Prices Index as a measure of inflation - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

16 CPIH-consistent inflation rate estimates for UK household groups - Office for National Statistics

17 Ibid.

18 Developing the Household Costs Indices (HCIs) - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

19 Scottish Child Payment - mygov.scot

20 New estimates of core inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

21 Feasibility study into producing CPIH consistent inflation rates for UK regions - Office for National Statistics

22 Boosting the Northern Ireland price sample for the Consumer Prices Index - Office for National Statistics

23 Published mid-February.

24 Next release scheduled for 26th February 2024.

25 As seen in some other European countries. See Annex B.

26 Adult Disability Payment and Child Disability Payment.

27 Carer Support Payment and Young Carer Grant.

28 This form of assistance has not yet been made under the Act.

29 Usually takes place in December.

30 These estimates are based on officially forecast (where available) and internally estimated inflation rates, and as such should be interpreted with caution.

31 A mixture of actual CPI rates between 2020 and 2023 and a forecast inflation rate for April 2024 have been used to estimate change in real value.

32 Since we don’t yet have out-turn inflation for April 2024, the real terms change estimated is based on a comparison between forecast and realised inflation for April 2023 and is illustrative only.

33 Comparative tables - MISSOC


Email: ceu@gov.scot

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