GDP Monthly Estimate: March 2026

In March the low level sector with the largest positive contribution to three-month GDP growth was Retail, Wholesale & Motor Trade, which contributed around 0.2 percentage points towards overall growth. When this is combined with negative contribution of Accommodation & Food Services to form the larger Distribution, Hotels & Catering sector, the overall contribution is around 0.1 percentage point. The largest negative contributor was Manufacturing, which contributed around -0.1 percentage points towards three-month GDP growth.

In the three months to March 2026, compared to the three months to December 2025, output in the Production sector is estimated to have contracted by 0.5%, while the Services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.2%. Construction sector output grew by 0.4% in the three months to March.

As reported by the Office for National Statistics, there were some common themes that were anecdotally reported, across the UK, to have played a part in performance across different industries in March 2026, as part of the monthly business surveys.

The conflict in Iran, which started at the end of February, has been cited from various businesses in terms of March 2026 data. These comments were across a range of industries and were both positive and negative in terms of their impact.

Negative comments were cited in some manufacturing industries, wholesale, warehousing and support activities for transportation, accommodation, employment agencies and travel agencies. These stated the conflict in Iran had an impact in terms of reduced turnover in March 2026. Many of these comments also cited likely negative impacts for future months as well.

Some comments also cited activity being bought forward in anticipation of increases in costs because of conflict in Iran. These comments came from a selection of industries in manufacturing, car sales, wholesale, and rental and leasing activity. On a similar note, the Retail sales, Great Britain: March 2026 release also highlighted fuel sales rose sharply on the month, with retailers reporting that motorists stocked up on fuel as prices rose.

Figure 2:  Retail, Wholesale & Motor Trade contributed 0.2 percentage points towards the three-month GDP growth of 0.1%