Modelling the long-run economic impacts of a stylised US tariff increase: technical paper
This paper uses the Scottish Government Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the long-run economic impacts of a stylised 10% tariff increase by the United States on UK goods exports.
Footnotes
1 Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber and certain critical minerals were exempt from this announcement.
2 UKTPO (2025) How does the UK stack up against other exporters in the US market?
3 Scottish Government (2025) Scottish economic bulletin: July 2025
4 Scottish Government (2025) Scottish economic insights: April 2025
5 OBR (2025) Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2025
6 Fontagne et al. (2022) Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities
7 Boehm et al. (2022) The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities
8 Figus et al. (2017) The Long-term Economic Implications of Brexit for Scotland: An Interregional Analysis
9 OBR (2025) Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2025
10 Northern Ireland Government (2025) The Direct Economic Impact of the New USA Tariff Regime on the Local Economy
11 The Social Accounting Matrix and CGE model are built for the onshore economy. Oil and gas exports are excluded from the analysis because they are not included in the accounting of the onshore economy.
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot