Publication - Research and analysis
Modelling the long-run economic impacts of a stylised US tariff increase: technical paper
This paper uses the Scottish Government Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the long-run economic impacts of a stylised 10% tariff increase by the United States on UK goods exports.
Annex F – Sensitivity Analysis
|
Variable |
Lower (e = -0.4) |
Central (e = -2) |
Upper (e = -4) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
GDP |
-0.15 |
-0.36 |
-0.44 |
|
Exports |
-0.20 |
-0.55 |
-0.78 |
|
Imports |
-0.26 |
-0.68 |
-0.93 |
|
Employment |
-0.10 |
-0.26 |
-0.33 |
|
Real wage |
-0.19 |
-0.44 |
-0.56 |
|
HH Consumption |
-0.21 |
-0.50 |
-0.62 |
|
Investment |
-0.16 |
-0.39 |
-0.47 |
|
Government expenditure |
-0.14 |
-0.36 |
-0.47 |
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot