Rural Scotland - trajectories of young people and young adults: report

Executive Summary

Rural youth outmigration, retention and attraction have received increased policy attention in the context of an ageing population and concern about youth outmigration from some rural and island areas. This report aims to:

• provide an overview of recent migration patterns of young people and adults aged 16 to 45 years in rural and island areas in Scotland drawing on existing data (chapter 2)
• offer insights on the experiences of and attitudes to migration /mobility in the lives of these age based on a review of peer reviewed and grey literature and a workshop with the Young Islanders’ Network (chapters 3 and 4)
• identify key messages and learning points for research and policy development (chapter 5).

While most previous research focuses on the mobility of young people at the post-school and tertiary stage (16-24) in rural areas, this report examines migration and mobility through a life course lens in relation to young people and adults aged 16-45 years. Mobilities are best understood as dynamic combinations of aspirations, intentions and decisions taken over the lifetime. The age range in this report captures key milestones/transitions in relation to three life course stages: the post-school, tertiary education/training, and post-tertiary stages respectively.

Demographic patterns – diversity and the importance of in- as well as outflows

The report presents new analysis of existing data on demographic aspects of mobilities and their wider impact on population. This draws on National Records of Scotland (NRS) data from Scotland’s three island local authorities (Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles) and on published Census data down to island/island group and civil parish levels for selected rural mainland and island areas. We also use a comparison of age distributions over time, drawing on data from Mid-year Population Estimates, Scotland, to estimate net in and out flows of distinct age cohorts.

Our analysis of the statistical migration patterns and trends by age in the three island local authorities (LAs) highlights that each has its own history and identity. Moreover, patterns at a finer grained geographic scale within each LA illustrate some of the diversity of wider population and migration trends in rural areas of Scotland.^[1],^[2]

Our analysis also demonstrates that almost everywhere, both at LA level and below, rural youth mobilities are marked by inflows as well as outflows and we argue that too little attention is being paid to the former. Certainly, there are substantial patterns of outmigration amongst young people aged 17-21, although it is worthy of note that this is true of patterns of movement in this age group across the whole of Scotland (see p. 16). However, we also identify often-overlooked patterns of inflows, both of children aged 15 and under, presumably arriving with their parents, and of adults aged over 20. This raises the question whether sufficient attention is paid not only to the size of losses at ages 17-21, but the size and age pattern of net inflows at older ages. We suggest that encouraging and supporting increased inflows might be a more fruitful policy approach than seeking to stem or prevent outflows.

Aspirations, intentions and decisions – insights into mobility in the lives of young people and adults

Mobility decisions are influenced by key life events/milestones which may include leaving school, tertiary and post-tertiary education and training stages, employment and household formation. Structural factors including limited educational and employment opportunities, lack of affordable housing and transport and limited access to some services (childcare, health and mental health in particular) are often noted as presenting challenges to young people and adults living in some rural and island communities. These factors are identified in research on the mobility choices and decisions of young people and can provide a useful focus for policy interventions.

Mobilities, and the aspirations, intentions and decisions of rural young people and adults are also shaped by other factors including social relationships, biographical and personal backgrounds, quality of life, emotions and experiences, social and cultural opportunities and constraints. These are less often a focus for policy and practice. Both negative discourses, such as representations of rural areas as ‘lagging’ behind, or a view of staying as a marker of ‘failure’, and more positive associations with the natural environment, quality of life and feelings of ‘rootedness’ in rural cultures, can all play a significant role in mobility aspirations and decisions, impacting differently at different life stages.

In order to understand the factors that influence young people’s and adults’ willingness to return or to move to rural areas it is important to draw on their insights and experiences.

Key messages and learning points for research and policy development

1. There is a need for better data.

If we are to understand the complex interactions between in- and out-movements among young people and adults we need access to and analysis of the best possible separate data on inflows and outflows, by age and preferably by sex, and for smaller geographies than just LAs.

We also need better and more robust data to understand the complexities of mobility aspirations, intentions and decisions. There is a need, for example, for more research on understanding the role of schools in shaping young people’s mobility decisions. The commitments in the Scottish Government’s Addressing Depopulation Action Plan (ADAP), to support research to inform and support policy development, as well as initiatives by local authorities and enterprise agencies to survey local populations are welcome. Care must be taken to design such research in ways that is most useful, for example so that differences between age cohorts, or between young men and young women can be identified.

A life course lens provides a framework for considering the different factors that come into play in relation to mobility decisions and choices at each life course stage. Individuals’ mobility choices and decisions are part of their life trajectories and changing life circumstances which are best captured by robust research drawing on longitudinal studies and a combination of large scale and small-scale studies.

2. Policies might focus more on benefits than deficits.

High levels of outflow among rural teenagers and those in their early twenties are a normal part of very many individuals’ life courses. Attempts to discourage these outflows are not only likely to fail but could well lead to less qualified and more narrowly experienced labour forces in these areas, which would be an inhibiting factor on economic, cultural and social services development.

Policy interventions might more productively seek to maximise the combined benefits of youth outmigration and middle age return, as well as the potential for in-migration of newcomers. This might include policy development specifically focused on facilitating and encouraging in-moves among slightly older people (both returners and newcomers), especially those in their later twenties to early forties who are most likely to bring or have children which will help balance population age structures.

More and better policy integration underpinned by systematic and rigorous data collection is also required if interventions are to be successful. International evidence suggests that cross-sectoral working and strong partnerships at local, regional and national levels can play a critical role in attracting young people and adults to rural areas. This needs effective partnership working across sectors at an appropriate local scale underpinned by shared commitments to clear policy goals.

3. Understanding diversity

Both analysis and policy development can benefit from increased understanding of the diversity of demographic patterns in different rural areas, and of their drivers. Rather than attempting to find universally applicable policies, it may be best to prioritise and resource the development of a set of possible initiatives that can be tailored to carefully analysed, and particular local needs and to support exchange of learning and good practice where relevant.

By the same token, policies need to take account of the diversities which shape young people’s and adults mobilities. An intersectional approach is important to recognising the complex identities and social positions (including gender, disability, ethnicity, race, migrant status, social class, sexuality) that impact on mobilities and to developing appropriate policies and interventions.

Involving a diversity of young people and adults directly in discussions and decisions regarding the development of rural and remote areas can help to find solutions. This requires local bottom-up context-specific policies and strategies based on relevant agencies working collaboratively with young people and adults by building on the unique qualities and cultures of places to improve their wellbeing as well as that of the whole community across the life course.