Labour Market Trends: August 2026

• early seasonally adjusted estimates for July 2026 from HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information indicate that there were 2.44 million payrolled employees in Scotland, a decrease of 0.2% (down 6,000) compared with July 2025. This compares with the UK where the number of payrolled employees had a decrease of 0.3% over the same period
• early seasonally adjusted estimates for July 2026 from HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information indicate that median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland was £2,687, an increase of 4.3% in nominal terms compared with July 2025. This is slightly higher than the growth in median monthly pay for the UK over the same period (4.2%). Changes over time are based on median monthly pay estimates rounded to the nearest pound
• in July 2026, the claimant count in Scotland was estimated at 106,800, a decrease of 1,000 (-0.9%) over the month and an increase of 4,600 (4.5%) over the year. The claimant count unemployment rate estimate in July 2026 was 3.6%, compared with 4.3% for the UK as a whole

Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates from January to March 2025 include the full effect of the improvements in LFS data collection and sampling methods introduced from January 2024 onwards. Caution should be taken when drawing conclusions from short-term changes and ONS advise users to focus on longer term movements in the data. Some volatility remains particularly for estimates for mid-2023 and throughout 2024 and for granular breakdowns where sample sizes are smaller. Therefore, ONS continue to recommend using the LFS estimates as part of the wider suite of labour market indicators, alongside Claimant Count and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information estimates.

An LFS operational issue occurred in May 2026 which led to temporary under-resourcing in LFS telephone collection operations. ONS analysis to date, including for the most recent period (April to June 2026), indicates that the issue had a minimal impact on the headline UK estimates. However, further information is required to assess the impact of the operational error on the Scotland level estimates. Further information is available in the ONS Labour Force Survey quality update: July 2026 article.

Latest estimates sourced from the ONS Labour Force Survey are for April to June 2026, compared with the year before (April to June 2025). Please note percentage point changes are based on unrounded data.

• estimates for April to June 2026 indicate that over the year, the unemployment rate increased while the economic inactivity and employment rates decreased
• the unemployment rate (16 and over) in Scotland was estimated at 5.1%, up 1.4 percentage points over the year. Scotland's unemployment rate was above the UK rate of 4.9%
• the employment rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work) in Scotland was estimated at 74.0%, down 1.1 percentage points over the year. Scotland's employment rate was below the UK rate of 75.1%
• the economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 years who were not working and not seeking or available to work) in Scotland was estimated at 22.0%, down 0.1 percentage points over the year. Scotland's economic inactivity rate was above the UK rate of 20.9%