Labour Market Trends: August 2026
Trends in Labour Market indicators from HMRC PAYE RTI, Claimant count, and ONS Labour Force Survey data covering Scotland and the UK.
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About this publication
This publication contains the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for Scotland and the UK by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The publication also includes the HMRC Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real-Time Information (RTI) and ONS Claimant Count statistics.
An Official Statistics in Development Publication for Scotland
These statistics are official statistics in development. Official statistics in development may be new or existing statistics, and will be tested with users, in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.
Scottish Government statistics are regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.
Source of data
The information included in this publication are from three separate sources covering the time periods shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Labour market data source reference periods
Comparison over time
Comparisons with the latest data over the year have been included within the commentary of this publication. Estimates for employment, unemployment and inactivity rates are compared over the year and over the quarter. ONS advise that caution should be taken when drawing conclusions based on short-term changes i.e. over the quarter.
ONS Labour Force Survey
ONS Labour Force Survey estimates are classed as Official statistics.
In July 2026, ONS revised their Labour Force Survey seasonally adjusted data back to January to March 2020 due to a seasonal adjustment review.
An LFS operational issue occurred in May 2026, which led to temporary under-resourcing in LFS telephone collection operations with estimates for March to May 2026 and April to June 2026 being subject to greater imputation. ONS analysis indicates this issue had a minimal impact on the headline UK estimates for April to June 2026. However, further information is required from ONS to assess the impact of the operational error on the Scotland level estimates. Further information is available in the ONS Labour Force Survey quality update: July 2026 article.
On 11 August 2026, ONS wrote a letter to the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) stating that LFS and APS-derived outputs that are currently official statistics in development will move to official statistics. ONS will not be seeking reaccreditation. Instead, their priority is for outputs based on the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), as the online-first sustainable replacement for the LFS and APS to achieve the standards required to become accredited official statistics and for OSR to consider their accreditation at the earliest opportunity.
Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates from January to March 2025 include the full effect of the improvements in LFS data collection and sampling methods introduced from January 2024 onwards. Caution should be taken when drawing conclusions from short-term changes and ONS advise users to focus on longer-term movements in the data. Some volatility remains particularly for estimates for mid-2023 and throughout 2024 and for granular breakdowns where sample sizes are smaller. Therefore, ONS continue to recommend using the LFS estimates as part of the wider suite of labour market indicators, alongside Claimant Count and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information estimates.
Previous revisions
In July 2026 ONS revised their Labour Force Survey seasonally adjusted data back to January to March 2020 due to a seasonal adjustment review. This follows an earlier seasonal adjustment review in March 2025 which revised seasonally adjusted data back to January to March 2019 and followed a reweighting exercise in December 2024. On 3 December 2024, ONS published an article outlining how the estimates have been affected by reweighting. These estimates were included in the main ONS release from 17 December 2024.
The reweighted LFS estimates incorporate information on the size and composition of the UK population, based on 2022 mid-year estimates. For England, Wales and Northern Ireland, they are projected forward using scaling factors from 2021-based National Population projections, published in January 2024. For Scotland, they are projected forward using scaling factors from 2020-based National Population Projections, published in January 2023.
Given time constraints, ONS were only able to reweight LFS estimates from January to March 2019 onwards. Therefore, the reweighting exercise creates a discontinuity between December 2018 to February 2019 and January to March 2019 where there will be a step change in LFS estimates. However, the seasonally adjusted UK levels of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity by sex and age-band have been modelled back to June to August 2011 to ensure that headline rates and levels by sex and age-band (datasets A02SA and A05SA) can be assessed without a discontinuity.
Reweighting takes account of more recent population estimates but does not address issues surrounding the increased volatility in the LFS data, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes.
ONS consider the replacement of the Labour Force Survey with the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) to be the longer-term solution. On 11 August 2026, ONS published a Labour market transformation article providing an update on the transformation of labour market statistics.
Other sources
HMRC PAYE Real Time Information
This publication also contains HMRC PAYE Real Time Information (RTI) on payrolled employees and their median monthly earnings.
HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information statistics were designated as Accredited official statistics on 31 July 2025. Further information can be obtained from the letter from OSR’s Director General to HMRC and ONS.
Claimant Count
The ONS have also published Claimant Count estimates which have also been included within this publication. These are classed as Official statistics in development.
HMRC and ONS Publications
This release follows the ONS monthly releases of:
Contact
For enquiries about this publication please contact:
Labour Market Statistics,
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
E-mail: LMStats@gov.scot
For general enquiries about Scottish Government statistics please contact:
Office of the Chief Statistician
E-mail: statistics.enquiries@gov.scot