Housing Statistics For Scotland Quarterly Update (Published 14th June 2022)

6. Affordable housing supply

Affordable Housing Supply Programme statistics reflect the broader supply of affordable homes (i.e. for social rent, affordable rent and affordable home ownership), and include off the shelf purchases and rehabilitations as well as new builds. Latest statistics are available up to the end of March 2022.

The statistics reflect the number of affordable homes delivered that have received some form of government support through loans, grant or guarantees.

Approvals, starts and completions are all measured for the Affordable Housing Supply Programme. Approval is the point at which funding is granted. Starts are recorded when an on-site presence is established to progress site work. Completion measures when the units are delivered and ready for occupation.

• Social Rent includes Housing Association Rent, Council House Rent as well as Home Owner Support Fund Rent.
• Affordable Rent includes Mid-Market Rent (MMR), National Housing Trust (NHT) Rent as well as other programmes such as the Empty Homes Loan Fund (EHLF) and Rural Homes for Rent (RHfR).
• Affordable Home Ownership includes Open Market Shared Equity (OMSE), New Supply Shared Equity (NSSE), Shared Ownership (LCHO) as well as other programmes such as Home Owner Support Fund Shared Equity.

Chart 11 below shows that the numbers of affordable homes completed has increased on an annual basis over the latest year to end March 2022, whilst the number of home approved has dropped slightly and the number of homes started has decreased. In the year to end March 2022, 7,821 affordable homes were approved, a slight decrease of 1% (63 homes) on the previous year, and 8,253 homes were started, a decrease of 19% (1,897 homes). A total of 9,757 homes were completed, an increase of 51% (3,279 homes), and the highest financial year figure recorded since the start of the series in 2000-01.

Table 6 below shows that in the latest quarter January to March 2022, 3,232 homes were approved, 3,160 homes were started, and 3,346 homes were completed. The levels of approvals and starts are lower than in the same period in the previous year, with approvals being 15% (592 homes) lower and starts being 34% (1,656 homes) lower than in January to March 2021. However the 3,346 completions in January to March 2022 is 4% (142 homes) higher than in January to March 2021.

Over the latest year to end March 2022, the number of homes approved dropped slightly by 1% (63 homes) to 7,821 approvals , the number of homes started decreased by 19% (1,897 homes) to 8,253 starts, whilst completions increased by 51% (3,279 homes) compared to the previous year.

Charts 12a to 12c below present quarterly trends in the number of approvals, starts and completions from January 2018 up to end March 2022.

Charts 13 to 15 below present information on trends in affordable housing supply by type.

Chart 13 shows that total affordable housing supply programme approvals decreased slightly by 1% between 2021 and 2022 (years to end March). In the latest year 2022, social rent approvals accounted for 75% of all approvals, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 12% and 13%, respectively.

Chart 14 shows that total affordable housing supply programme starts decreased by 19% (1,897 homes) between 2021 and 2022 (years to end March). In the latest year 2022, social rent approvals accounted for 78% of all approvals, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 9% and 13%, respectively

Chart 15 shows that total affordable housing supply programme completions increased by 51% (3,279 homes) between 2021 and 2022 (years to end March). In the latest year, social rent completions accounted for 75% of all completions, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 13% and 12% of the total.

Affordable housing supply 50,000 homes target

Quarterly affordable housing supply statistics are used to inform progress against Scottish Government affordable housing delivery targets.

The latest quarterly figure of 3,346 affordable homes completed in January to March 2022 shows that the 50,000 affordable housing supply target that started in April 2016 has now been met, with a total of 51,119 homes completed between 1 April 2016 and end March 2022.

Of the 50,000 affordable homes completed between 1 April 2016 and 23 March 2022, 34,405 homes (69%) were for social rent, 6,245 (12%) were for affordable rent, and 9,350 (19%) were for affordable home ownership.

The 50,000 affordable homes target had initially been planned to cover the five-year period between 2016/17 and 2020/21. However this was impacted on by the COVID-19 lockdown measures in 2020, with the remaining homes being delivered as quickly as it has been safe to do so over the year 2021/22.

Further detailed figure are available in the Affordable Housing Supply Excel webtables.

Now that the 50,000 affordable homes target has been met, the longer term ambition is to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032, of which at least 70% will be for social rent and 10% will be in remote, rural and island communities.

The latest statistics show that from 24 March 2022 up to 31 March 2022, a total of 1,119 affordable homes (1,057 homes for social rent, 16 for affordable rent, and 46 for affordable home ownership) have been completed against the new 110,000 target.

Note that additional local authority level figures for total affordable housing supply completions and social rent completions from 2007-08 onwards are available in the Scottish Government Affordable Housing Supply Programme policy area webpages. This Excel table provides total figures for each financial year, as well as totals across the different target periods, including the 30,000 target between 2011-12 and 2015-16, the 50,000 target from 2016-17 to 2021-22 (to 23 March 2022), and the 110,000 target from 24 March 2022.

The Scottish Government Affordable Housing Supply Programme policy area webpages also include annual Out-Turn Reports, which provide further detailed programme information for each financial year. The 2021-22 Out-Turn Report will be published towards the end of this year.

Affordable housing supply across UK countries

Chart 16 below illustrates how affordable housing supply figures per 10,000 population have varied on a financial year basis across the 2007/08 to 2020/21 period for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and 2021/22 for Scotland.

Across the 14 years between 2007/08 and 2020/21, the annual average supply of affordable housing per head of population in Scotland has been 13.6 homes per 10,000 population, higher than England (9.6 homes per 10,000 population), Wales (8.0 homes per 10,000 population), and Northern Ireland (13.0 homes per 10,000 population – average across the years 2010/11 to 2020/21).

Scotland has had a higher rate of supply than all other UK countries across each year 2015/16 to 2019/20, although the rate dropped below the rate for Northern Ireland in the year 2020/21.

In addition to the differences in total affordable supply between each country, there are also some differences in the use of different affordable housing products within the mix of overall affordable housing in each country. For example, in England in recent years there has been a greater use of affordable / intermediate rent compared to social rent. Therefore when looking over the four years to 2020/21, in England there have been on average 4.8 affordable / intermediate rent homes completed per 10,000 head of population and 1.1 social rented homes completed 10,000 per-head of population. This compares to a rate of 1.8 for affordable rent homes and a rate of 10.8 for social rented homes in Scotland.

Note that the statistics for England and Wales both include developer-funded Section 106 supply, although for England it is thought that some will be missed as local authorities are not aware of it all. Northern Ireland does not currently have an equivalent mechanism. Data for Scotland include Section 75 units receiving some form of government funding. Data are not available to estimate the number of affordable homes delivered without central government funding in Scotland, but it is thought that the numbers of these homes may be relatively low based on current estimates of the number of funded Affordable and Section 75 homes being delivered.