Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan: Equality Impact Assessment

Background

The Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan (JTP) is the Scottish Government’s first place-based Just Transition Plan, that works to support a decarbonised industrial cluster whilst embedding positive and equitable outcomes for the workforce and wider community of Grangemouth. The plan makes clear our vision for the future of the industrial cluster and charts a series of actions focussing on securing long-term investment for achieving our net zero ambitions by codesigning solutions with and for business as well as the wider community. A draft version of the Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan underwent a public consultation between November 2024 and February 2025.

The JTP’s overall purpose is to provide a strategic framework to guide decision making for the cluster on the path to reach Net Zero by 2045.

To do this, the JTP outlines a vision for the future, illustrating the Scottish Government’s ambition for Grangemouth and a target for Grangemouth to become a carbon-neutral hub by 2045. The cluster aims to become a Net Zero chemicals centre, supporting the development of biofuels and hydrogen sectors that play a key role in driving Scotland’s energy security and economic prosperity. To achieve this, the Scottish Government has set out five key transition pillars that it aims to address:

1. A thriving industrial cluster, leveraging existing strengths;

2. A low-carbon fuel and energy hub for the future;

3. An industrial carbon capture point for central Scotland;

4. Scotland’s central bio-manufacturing location; and

5. An innovative cluster leading new and advanced industrial processes and manufacturing.

These pillars are intended to help bridge the technical and commercial actions required to support the delivery of the JTP.

In support of this, the Plan also provides a set of Just Transition Outcomes that are guided by the Scottish Government’s National Just Transition Planning Framework, outlining four outcome areas that the plan should achieve. The four outcome areas the JTP aims to improve are:

• Jobs, Skills, and Economic Opportunities
• Communities and Places
• People and Equity
• Adaptation, Biodiversity and Environment

These outcomes are intended to ensure that the communities and workforce are stand to benefit from decision making that supports the economic growth of Grangemouth as it transitions to net zero. To achieve this, the plan also includes a series of 21 actions that will enable a just transition for Grangemouth. These actions have been divided into near, medium-, and longer-term activities.

Broadly, the actions pertain to improving a range of areas and themes across the cluster, including aligning strategy and governance, improving access to jobs and skills, regulatory changes, enhanced engagement between community and industry, and increased access to Scottish and UK Government funding. The efficacy of these actions will be measured against a robust monitoring and evaluation framework, which is also set out within the JTP.

Of the 21 actions outlined within the Plan, some are significantly developed or underway while others will require further scoping and agreement across the Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB) before they commence. We have therefore developed a Theory of Change (ToC) to assess the projected impact of this programme. This ToC identifies a series of impact pathways which have enabled us to make a series of informed assumptions on the potential impact of actions set out within the JTP. To this end, the Scottish Government acknowledges the need for further EQIAs to be conducted to assess the impact of individual actions currently set out at a high level within the JTP prior to their commencement. To address the limitations in evidence and ensure the impacts are just and fair, the Monitoring and Evaluation Framework includes indicators that are relevant to measuring the ongoing impact of the JTP on individual with protected characteristics.

The JTP aligns with wider Scottish Government strategic aims including the 2045 Net Zero target as well as aligning with the UK Government’s energy security objectives to achieve energy independence by aiming to double Britain’s electricity generation capacity by the late 2030s. Finally, the JTP aligns with objectives outlined in the Programme for Government 2025-26 with four key priorities in eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency, and ensuring high quality and sustainable public services. Scotland has a wide array of national and local strategies, policies, plans, and agreements to support the transition to net zero and promote economic growth which the JTP will support. These include:

• National Planning Framework 4 (‘NPF4’)
• National Strategy for Economic Transformation (‘NSET’)
• Hydrogen Action Plan
• Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 (‘SNAP’)
• The Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan 2020-2025
• Supply Chain Development Programme (‘SDP’)
• Inward Investment Plan
• Global Capital Investment Plan

As members of the community and potential contributors to the workforce, it is anticipated that the JTP will positively impact individuals with protected characteristics in several ways. This is outlined in more detail in the ‘Key Findings’ section of this EQIA.