Publication - Statistics

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland: 2017-2018

Published: 22 Aug 2018
Directorate:
Chief Economist Directorate
Part of:
Economy, Statistics
ISBN:
9781787811546

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) is a National Statistics publication. It estimates the contribution of revenue raised in Scotland toward the goods and services provided for the benefit of Scotland.

68 page PDF

1.6 MB

68 page PDF

1.6 MB

Contents
Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland: 2017-2018
Chapter 4: Devolved Revenue and Expenditure

68 page PDF

1.6 MB

Chapter 4: Devolved Revenue and Expenditure

Devolved and Reserved Revenue in Scotland 2017-18

Devolved and Reserved Revenue in Scotland 2017-18

Devolved and Reserved Expenditure in Scotland 2017-18

Devolved and Reserved Expenditure in Scotland 2017-18

Introduction

Following the implementation of Scotland Act 2012 and Scotland Act 2016, the powers of the Scottish Parliament over taxation and expenditure in Scotland are changing. This chapter sets out the amount of public sector revenue and expenditure currently devolved and how this will change with the implementation of the Scotland Act 2016.

Devolved Revenue

The table below sets out revenue raised in Scotland from taxes currently devolved to the Scottish Parliament. Total devolved tax revenue in 2017-18 was estimated to reach £16,620 million.

2017-18 was the first year when non-saving non-dividend income tax was devolved. Since 2016-17, HMRC has put in place new infrastructure to identify Scottish income tax payers and tax revenue, and this provides an important new statistical source in GERS. However, it also creates a discontinuity in the income tax series in Table 4.1 as comparable data is not available for earlier years. As a result, the income tax estimates for 2013-14 to 2015-16 in the shaded cells are not comparable to the estimates for later years. Similarly, there is a discontinuity in the estimates of Scottish landfill tax and land and building transaction tax following the creation of Revenue Scotland, which is now responsible for collecting these taxes.

Table 4.1: Currently devolved taxes

£ million
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Council tax 1,973 2,007 2,037 2,075 2,261
Non-domestic rates 2,367 2,511 2,579 2,732 2,774
Land and buildings transaction tax 1 (devolved from 2015-16) 388 488 425 484 546
Scottish landfill tax (devolved from 2015-16) 2 153 149 147 149 149
Non-savings and non-dividend income tax liabilities (devolved from 2017-18) 3 10,881 11,004 10,948 10,700 10,890
Total devolved taxes 15,762 16,042 16,136 16,139 16,620

1 Figures for 2015-16 onwards are from Revenue Scotland. Previous years are based on HMRC estimates

2 Figures for 2015-16 onwards are from Revenue Scotland. Previous years are based on ONS estimates

3 This table shows Scottish Rate of Income Tax liabilities rather than receipts. They are therefore calculated on a different basis to the estimates of total Scottish income tax receipts in Table 1.1. Figures for 2015-16 and earlier are based on the Survey of Personal Incomes. The figure for 2016-17 is from HMRC accounts, and the figure for 2017-18 is based on SFC forecasts.

Note: Shaded cells represent estimates for years when tax devolution has not occurred. These are not directly comparable to outturn data in other cells.

Further devolution of taxes is due to continue in the next few years, following the Scotland Act 2016. As these taxes are not yet devolved, the table below shows the estimated historical revenues from these taxes

Table 4.2: Revenue to be devolved under Scotland Act 2016

£ million
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Air passenger duty (date of devolution to be decided) 226 240 250 265 275
Aggregates levy (date of devolution to be decided) 44 55 53 63 57

As well as devolving tax powers to the Scottish Government, the Scotland Act 2016 allows for the first 10p of the standard rate of VAT receipts and the first 2.5p of the reduced rate of VAT receipts in Scotland to be assigned to the Scottish Government, from 2019-20.

Table 4.3 shows the VAT that would have been assigned to Scotland under this approach, given the methodology used in GERS. The Scottish Government and HMRC are currently working together to agree a methodology that will be used for VAT assignment purposes.

Table 4.3: VAT Assignment: Scotland 2013-14 to 2017-18

£ million
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
VAT assignment (from 2019-20) 4,534 4,673 4,865 4,939 5,073

Note: Assigned VAT receipts are 50% of total receipts in all years.

Further information on the planned devolution of taxes to the Scottish Government is available in the fiscal framework agreement between the Scottish and UK Governments. [21] The net impact on Scottish Government funding will depend in part on how the block grant received by the Scottish Government is adjusted to reflect the devolution of new revenue streams. This adjustment will be based in part on the relative growth in tax per head for each devolved tax in Scotland and the rest of the UK. Table 4.4 below shows tax per head for Scotland and the rest of the UK for each of the relevant taxes.

Table 4.4: Devolved revenue per head: Scotland and rest of UK

£ per person
Scotland Rest of UK
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Income tax 2,040 2,055 2,035 1,978 2,007 2,366 2,373 2,422 2,522 2,601
VAT 850 873 904 913 935 827 858 893 928 948
APD 42 45 46 49 51 47 50 47 49 51
LBTT 74 92 80 91 102 152 175 181 198 215
Landfill tax 29 28 27 28 27 17 16 15 14 12
AL 8 10 10 12 11 4 5 5 6 5

Notes: Income tax refers to non-savings non-dividend income tax liabilities

Shaded cells represent estimates for years when tax devolution has not occurred. These are not directly comparable to figures in other cells.

Income tax figures for 2016-17 for Scotland is taken from HMRC’s July 2018 Annual Report. A comparable rest of UK figure is not currently available. This means that the growth rate in income tax between 2015-16 and 2016-17 for Scotland and the rest of the UK are not comparable. Figures for 2017-18 for Scotland, and 2016-17 and 2017-18 for the rest of the UK, are based on official forecasts from the Scottish Fiscal Commission and Office for Budget Responsibility respectively.

APD: air passenger duty

LBTT: Land and Buildings Transaction Tax for Scotland, compared to LBTT and stamp duties on property for the UK

AL: aggregates levy

Devolved Social Security

The table below shows the expenditure in Scotland from social security benefits devolved to the Scottish Parliament prior to implementation of Scotland Act 2016.

Table 4.5: Social security devolved prior to Scotland Act 2016

£ million
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Council tax reduction 1 379 360 344 332 327
Scottish welfare fund 29 36 33 35 33
Discretionary housing payments 29 36 33 35 33
Total 436 431 410 401 392

Notes: 1 Figures for 2013-14 show council tax benefit administered by the Department for Work and Pensions

The table below shows the latest available figures for social security benefits which are due to be devolved to the Scottish Government under the Scotland Act 2016.

Table 4.6: Devolved social security under Scotland Act 2016

£ million
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Disability living allowance 1,471 1,467 1,400 1,219 996
Attendance allowance 481 485 487 487 493
Carer's allowance 182 203 222 234 248
Winter fuel payment 186 184 181 178 175
Personal independence payment 20 163 317 550 878
Industrial injuries disablement benefit 88 89 87 84 82
Severe disablement allowance 91 77 51 22 11
Cold weather payment 1 7 3 1 21
Funeral payment 6 6 5 5 5
Sure Start maternity grant 3 3 3 3 3
Total expenditure on social security to be devolved 2,530 2,682 2,757 2,790 2,916

The fiscal framework agreement discussed above also covers the devolution of social security expenditure to the Scottish Government. The Scotland Act 2016 sets out that the final impact on the Scottish Government budget of devolution of these benefits will be determined through an adjustment to the Scottish block grant. As with devolved revenue, the adjustment made to the Scottish Government’s budget to reflect this additional spending responsibility will depend in part on the relative growth in expenditure per head for each newly devolved benefit in Scotland and the rest of GB.

Table 4.7 below shows expenditure per head for each of the relevant benefits for Scotland and the rest of Great Britain. For the majority of social security, expenditure per head is higher in Scotland than the rest of Great Britain, although overall the rate of growth in expenditure per head has been similar between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain since 2013-14 for each individual benefit.

Table 4.7: Devolved social security expenditure per head: Scotland and rest of GB

£ per person
Scotland Rest of GB
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Disability living allowance 276 274 260 225 184 215 214 204 176 143
Attendance allowance 90 91 91 90 91 86 86 86 85 86
Carer's allowance 34 38 41 43 46 33 37 40 42 44
Winter fuel payment 35 34 34 33 32 34 34 33 32 31
Personal independence payments 4 30 59 102 162 2 3 4 79 123
Industrial Injuries disability benefit 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 13 13
Severe disablement allowance 17 14 9 4 2 13 11 7 4 2
Cold weather payment 0 1 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0
Funeral expenses payments 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Sure Start maternity grant 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0

Summary of current and proposed devolved powers

The table below shows estimates of devolved receipts and expenditure before and after the implementation of the Scotland Acts 2012 and 2016.

Table 4.8: Fiscal powers before and after Scotland Act 2016, 2017-18 (£ million)

Before Scotland Acts 2012 and 2016 After Scotland Acts 2012 and 2016
Non-saving non-dividend income tax liabilities (devolved from 2016-17) - 10,890
Council tax 2,261 2,261
Non-domestic rates 2,774 2,774
Land and buildings transaction tax) (devolved from 2015-16) - 546
Scottish landfill tax (devolved from 2015-16) - 149
Air passenger duty (date to be decided) - 275
Aggregates levy (date to be decided) - 57
Total devolved taxes 5,035 16,952
Devolved taxes as % of non-North Sea Scottish revenue 9% 29%
as % of revenue incl geographical share of North Sea revenue 1 8% 28%
Assigned VAT 2 (assigned from 2019-20) 5,073
Total devolved and assigned taxes 5,035 22,025
Devolved and assigned taxes as % of non-North Sea Scottish revenue 9% 38%
as % of taxes incl geographical share of North Sea revenue 1 8% 37%
Devolved expenditure including housing benefit 3 ( HB) 42,848 45,764
Devolved taxes as % of estimated devolved expenditure 12% 37%
Devolved and Assigned taxes as % of estimated devolved expenditure 12% 48%

1 Figures for the shares of devolved taxes as a share of total taxes including a population share of North Sea revenue are the same as the share when excluding North Sea taxes.

2 Assigned VAT is shown on a gross basis, consistent with the National Accounts presentation. If net VAT were to be used, devolved expenditure would also need to be adjusted, as set out in Table A.9. In this case, devolved and assigned revenue would be 49% of devolved expenditure.

3 In GERS and the CRA, housing benefit is included in Scottish local government spending, as they make the payments to recipients, although it is set centrally and funded by the Department for Work and Pensions. Depending on definitions adopted, it could either be excluded or included in devolved expenditure.


Contact

Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot