Future Medical Workforce Project Annex C: Technical assumptions and approach

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Estimate the output from Foundation Year 2 based on current intake to Medical Undergraduate

Model 1 was used to estimate the output from Foundation Year 2 based on the current input to medical school. This model accounts for: the intake into medical school, the transition from entry to PMQ, expected PMQs, the transition from PMQ to F1, the expected number of F1s (including inflow from outside PMQs in Scotland), the transition from F1 to F2 and the number of F2s (including inflow from outside F2s in Scotland).

It assumes:

• The intake into medical school during the forecast period is the same as in the last sample period.
• The inflow from outside Scotland at F1 and F2 stage during the forecast period is the same as the last sample period.

Scenario 2: estimate the inflow required to achieve GMP workforce target in 2045

A simplified model was used to estimate the inflow into GMP specialty training to meet at GMP workforce size in 2045. This is not broken down by age, sex or PMQ source.

The stock and flow of the GMP workforce was used to calculate the headcount, inflow and outflows in each year from 2014 to 2024. The Scottish Government asked that the scenario aimed for a ‘target’ of 6,692 for the GMP workforce in 2045. It is assumed that there is a constant, annual increase in GMP workforce in each year from 2024 and 2045.

Scenario 3: the effect of changing the transition to GMP workforce

There is variation in the time to enter GMP workforce after completing training. Using Model 2 the effect of changing the time and proportion that transition to the GMP workforce on the size of the GMP workforce is estimated for various transition probabilities.

We compared two scenarios with the baseline:

1. Doctors are observed in the workforce the year following CCT

The transition probability at one year is set to the maximum transition probability in the baseline model. For example, if the baseline model shows a maximum of 70% of CCTs enter the workforce, then this scenario forces 70% of CCTs to enter the workforce at one year. In this scenario the same number of CCTs will enter GMP workforce compared with the baseline.