Future Medical Workforce Project Annex C: Technical assumptions and approach

Model 1: undergraduate and Foundation training

The first part of the model covers undergraduate and Foundation training using data derived from the UK Medical Education Database,^[1] specifically Higher Education Student data for Undergraduate training^[2] and the quantitative part of the National Training Survey.^[3]

Undergraduate to Primary Medical Qualification (PMQ)

HESA data are used to identify students on standard and graduate entry courses for medicine in Scotland and the rest of the UK. The sample data includes the year that the course was started and completed. Data are available by domicile and cover 2012-13 to 2021-22.

The intake is standard and graduate entry to medicine. From 2022-23 onwards, the expected intake is the same as the last observed intake.

The minimum duration of standard entry course is five years and for graduate entry is four, however, in practice, there is variation in the time to complete. Time to event statistics is used to estimate the probability and duration of course completion.

The observed number of PMQs are calculated by Scotland or Rest of UK, domicile and standard or graduate entry. The expected number of PMQs is the product of the intake into medicine and the intake to PMQ transition probabilities.

Transition from PMQ to Foundation Year 1 (FY1)

The PMQ to FY1 transition probabilities are based on the 2021 estimates. Time to event statistics measure the probability that a PMQ is first observed in F1 in either Scotland or the Rest of the UK. These estimates include all PMQs and not just those on Standard Entry and Graduate Entry courses.

Foundation

The observed intake into FY1 is the number of doctors who are first observed in FY1 in the NTS data. Sample data are available by country of PMQ and F1 deanery (Scotland, rest of UK, International Medical Graduates) and are from 2012 to 2024.

The expected number of FY1s is the sum of: the product of the number of PMQs and the PMQ to F1 transition probability; and the number of IMG entrants into F1. The number of IMG entrants into F1 during the forecast period is assumed to be the same as in the final year of the sample period.

Time to event statistics are used to estimate the transition probabilities between being first observed in F1 and F2. They are calculated by PMQ source, F1 and F2 country (Scotland or Rest of UK).

The expected number of FY2s is the sum of: the product of the number of F1s and the F1 to F2 transition probabilities; and the number of IMG entrants into F2.