Future Medical Workforce Project Annex C: Technical assumptions and approach
Technical assumptions and approach
Illustrative outputs from the models
Medical speciality training and transition to the GP workforce data was published on 9th December by NES[8]. Data for Consultants has not been published and key data from that model is shown below in Tables 1 and 2.
During the forecast period, we assume the same intake as the last observed value i.e. 2024. This is shown in Table 1 below.
| PMQ Source | 2024 (and 2045) intake to non-GP ST | % of non-GP ST intake |
|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 311 | 48% |
| Rest of UK (rUK) | 145 | 22% |
| International Medical graduate (IMG) | 185 | 29% |
| Unknown | 6 | <1% |
| Total ST1 intake | 647 | 100% |
The probability of completing speciality training is calculated across all 60+ professions individually, so cannot be summarised here as it has been for GPs in the above publication. It is not possible to compare specialities as they all have different minimum durations.
Table 3 below shows the numbers who received their Certificate of Completion of Training (CCT) in 2024 by location of PMQ and the forecast to 2045. The trend of PMQ composition for consultant CCT remains fairly static comparing 2024 to the 2045 forecast.
| Location of PMQ | 2024 | % of ST output | 2045 | % of ST output |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 203 | 65% | 220 | 60% |
| rUK | 67 | 21% | 75 | 20% |
| IMG | 43 | 14% | 69 | 19% |
| Unknown | 1 | <1% | 3 | <1% |
| Total ST output | 314 | 100% | 367 | 100% |
The transition to employment is based on date of receiving CCT and date of first observed GP employment in a trained grade in Scotland. It has not been possible to estimate the transition between non-GP specialty training to consultant employment within the time frame. So, it is assumed that once a trainee completes, they will enter consultant employment in Scotland in the same specialty.
As well as inflow to employment from newly qualified staff training in Scotland, inflows also occur from those who left employment in Scotland during the sample period but then returned and those who were not previously employed in the sample period, for instance, those who trained outside of Scotland.