Future Medical Workforce Project Annex C: Technical assumptions and approach

Model overview

The model will use data and statistical methods to estimate the intake, completion probability, output of each stage of training, and transition between each stage and the workforce. The training stages are undergraduate, foundation, and specialty training. A stock and flow model for consultant and GMP workforce is used to estimate the expected workforce from 2025 to 2045.

The model is built in two parts due to different data sources. The first part covers undergraduate and Foundation training and the second part covers postgraduate specialty training and consultant and GMP workforce.

A diagram of the components of the model can be found on page 32 of the main report.