A Fresh Start with Independence

Endnotes

1. Scottish Parliament Information Centre Free personal and nursing care in Scotland – SPICe Spotlight | Solas air SPICe, 4 September 2025

2. Public Health Scotland Overview – Smoke-free Scotland (accessed October 2025)

3. Public Health Scotland No cervical cancer cases detected in vaccinated women following HPV immunisation, 22 January 2024

4. See Health Protection Scotland (2019) Implementation of HIV PrEP in Scotland: First Year Report, Health Protection Scotland (2019) Implementation of HIV PrEP in Scotland: Second Year Report and Public Health Scotland (2025) Ending HIV Transmission in Scotland by 2030: HIV Transmission Elimination Delivery Plan 2023-26 Mid Plan Progress Report. The latest statistics on HIV in Scotland are available at Public Health Scotland (2025) HIV in Scotland: update to 31 December 2024

5. The number of staff in our NHS has increased over the last year: 02 September 2025 Workforce | Turas Data Intelligence; Agenda for Change staff which includes Nurses, Midwives and Paramedics have the best reward package in the UK: Pay and conditions for NHS staff covered by the Agenda for Change agreement, Pay scales for 2025/26 | NHS Employers. Staff numbers, including GP numbers going up over the last 12 months: 02 September 2025 Workforce | Turas Data Intelligence, General Practice Workforce Survey 2025 | Turas Data Intelligence

6. Public Health Scotland Accident and Emergency – Urgent and Unscheduled Care; NHS England A&E Attendances and Emergency Admissions, both last accessed 7 August 2025. Comparison on the basis of monthly performance (the percentage of patients at Core (Scotland) and Type 1 (England) Emergency Departments who are admitted, discharged or transferred within four hours). See also Office for National Statistics (2025) Accident and Emergency wait times across the UK: 2024 on cross-UK comparability of Accident and Emergency wait time statistics

7. Public Health Scotland General information about the Tariff (accessed October 2025)

8. In 2000, the Standards in Scottish Schools Act placed a duty on local authorities to secure a pre-school education place for all three and four year olds. In 2002, universal funded pre-school education was introduced at 412.5 hours (2.5 hours per day over 33 weeks per year). In 2007, this increased to 475 hours (2.5 hours / day over 38 weeks), and in 2014 provision increased further to 600 hours (five 3 hour 10 minute sessions per week over 38 weeks). Since 2021 all 3 and 4 year olds and eligible 2 year olds in Scotland have been entitled to 1140 funded hours of early learning and childcare. Further information is set out in: Scottish Government (2016) A Blueprint for 2020: Expansion of Early Learning and Childcare in Scotland Consultation; and, Scottish Government (2022) Best Start – strategic early learning and school age childcare plan 2022 to 2026

9. UK Government (2024) Changes to tuition fees: 2025 to 2026 academic year (£9,535 for standard full-time courses; £11,440 for full-time accelerated courses; £7,145 for part-time courses); UCAS Student Finance – Student Loans And Tuition Fees

10. Graduate Endowment Abolition (Scotland) Act 2008

11. Scottish Funding Council (2025) Report on Widening Access 2023-24, Table 1: Scottish-domiciled full-time first degree entrants at university and Scottish-domiciled all undergraduate HE entrants (both sectors), from the 20% most deprived areas (SIMD0-20) and care experience (CE), 2013-14 to 2023-24, comparing 2023-24 to 2016-17

12. The most recent Scottish Government statistics publication with full electricity generation by source data for 2000, was Key Scottish Environment Statistics 2013. Table BG3 ‘Electricity generation by source: 2000-2011’ in the Charts and tables spreadsheet available under ‘Supporting documents’ shows that, in 2000, 16,624 GWh (33%) of electricity was generated from coal and 4,971 GWh (10%) of electricity was generated from renewables out of a total of 50,401 GWh. Over 90% (4,665 GWh) of electricity generated from renewable sources was from hydro in 2000 – Scottish Government Scottish Energy Statistics Hub Electricity generated from renewable sources (see ‘Electricity generated annual’ chart and table)

13. Data on the proportion of electricity generated in Scotland from renewable sources for the period 2004-2023 is at: Scottish Government, Scottish Energy Statistics Hub Proportion of electricity generation by fuel (see ‘Scotland proportion table’)

14. Scottish Government (2025) Energy Statistics for Scotland – Q4 2024 “ Scotland’s net electricity exports in 2024 had an indicative value of £1.5 billion based on the average wholesale day-ahead contracts price trend for 2024”

15. Scottish Government (2025) Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023. Emissions in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) compared between 1999 and 2023, the latest year available

16. Transport Scotland Young Persons’ (Under 22s) Free Bus Travel and Transport Scotland Eligibility and Conditions for the 60+ or Disabled Traveller

17. Transport Scotland Read about the story of the Queensferry Crossing and get vital updates on the progress of the Forth Replacement Crossing project; Queensferry Crossing Facts & Figures

18. Transport Scotland (2020) Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan, p14

19. Scotrail Independent economic impact report shows ScotRail’s £4 billion contribution to Scotland | ScotRail, 31 March 2025

20. ScotRail Peak fares gone. For good.

21. Comparing average annual growth in GDP per head between 2007 and 2024 Scotland (10.3%) and UK (6.8%). Office for National Statistics, Gross domestic product (Average) per head, CVM market prices (reference year = 2023) £ (last accessed 30 September 2025); Scottish Government (2025) GDP First Quarterly Estimate 2025 Q2 (April to June)) (last accessed 30 September 2025)

22. Comparing average annual growth in productivity between 2007 and 2024 of 0.9% (Scotland) and 0.3% (UK) Scottish Government (2025) Labour productivity statistics for Scotland 2024, Table 5 (last accessed 30 September 2025)

23. Beahurst (2025) The State of Investment in Scotland

24. See Scottish Government (2025) Breaking down barriers to business and The Young Company Finance Scotland (2024) Newcomer Investors Report 2024

25. Abolition of Feudal Tenure etc. (Scotland) Act 2000 (legislation.gov.uk)

26. Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2003

27. For example, the Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2016, and the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill, in the Scottish Parliament.

28. Housing (Scotland) Act 2014

29. Scottish Government (2025) Housing Statistics 2024: Key Trends Summary, Social Housing Stock

30. Scottish Government (2024) Housing Statistics for Scotland Quarterly Update: New Housebuilding and Affordable Housing Supply to end September 2024 Chart 11: Affordable housing delivery across the UK as a rate per 10,000 population 2007-08 to 2023-24 (years to end March), Rates; see also Welsh Government (2024) Affordable housing provision: April 2023 to March 2024 and UK Government Live tables on affordable housing supply (all last accessed 7 August 2025)

31. Scottish Futures Trust Public Private Partnerships – Workstreams (accessed 1 October 2025)

32. Scottish Government (2024) School estate statistics 2024, Section 1: Schools built or substantially refurbished

33. Scottish Government (2024) School estate statistics 2024, Section 2: School condition

34. Scottish Government (2024) Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) Levels 2023-24 (last accessed 7 August 2025). For P1, P4 and P7 pupils combined, the proportion achieving the expected levels in literacy and numeracy in 2023-24 are the highest to date. For S3 pupils, the proportions achieving Third Level or better in literacy and numeracy are also the highest to date

35. Scottish Government (2025) Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2024-25. Recorded Crime in Scotland has decreased significantly since it peaked in 1991. Levels in 2024-25 were amongst the lowest since 1974

36. There were 16,427 full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers in Scotland on 30 June 2025 – see Scottish Government (2025) Police officer quarterly strength statistics: 30 June 2025. There were 14,863 FTE police officers in Scotland in 2000 – see Scottish Government (2025) Police Officer Strength Scotland – Historical Data – 1970-06. Figures prior to 2000 are a headcount of the number of police officers, so not directly comparable to the FTE numbers

37. Scottish Government (2022) Building a New Scotland: Renewing democracy through independence

38. See UK Government Major immigration reforms delivered to restore order and control and Scottish Government (2025) UK Immigration White Paper 2025 – Scottish Government Proposals

39. Scottish Government (2023), Devolution Since the Brexit Referendum

40. Professor Aileen McHarg, evidence to Scottish Affairs Select Committee, September 2023 – Intergovernmental Relations: 25 years since the Scotland Act 1998 – Written evidence submitted by Professor Aileen McHarg (IGR0005)

41. Scottish Government (2025) Internal Market Act 2020: position paper

42. Scottish Government (2023) Devolution since the Brexit Referendum

43. Scottish Government (2025) Child poverty modelling: update

44. Scottish Government (2025) Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland 2021-24 (last accessed September 2025), table 2.2 (Child poverty target measures compared to UK), relative poverty

45. Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) The two-child limit: poverty, incentives and cost

46. UK Government (2023) Net migration measures – further detail

47. UK Government (2025) Monthly entry clearance visa applications, August 2025

48. UK Government (2025) Immigration white paper to reduce migration and strengthen border

49. See UK Government (2025) Why do people come to the UK – Work? and Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2025, Entry clearance visa applications and outcomes detailed datasets, year ending June 2025, Table Vis_D02, Health and Care (Worker) visas granted to main applicants

50. See UK Government (2025) Why do people come to the UK – Work?

51. Public Health Scotland (2025) NHS dental data monitoring report – Quarter ending June 2025

52. Public Health Scotland (2025) NHS dental data monitoring report – Quarter ending June 2025 Data Tables, Table 2: Number of claims; by payment arrangement, dental service and month; (October 2023 – June 2025)

53. General Dental Council (2025) Registration Statistical Report 2024

54. General Dental Council (2025) Registration Statistical Report 2024, Dentists, by route to registration 2024

55. 2006 baseline (p11): National Workforce Strategy for Health and Social Care in Scotland; For current workforce as comparison: 02 September 2025 Workforce | Turas Data Intelligence

56. NHS Education for Scotland (2025) NHSScotland Workforce

57. Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (2025) Spotlight on Research – Exploring the Health Impacts of Austerity

58. Pension Age Winter Heating Payment – mygov.scot and Two Child Limit Payment – Social security – gov.scot

59. The Constitution Society (2025) The Economic Impact of Brexit, Nine Years On: Was the Consensus Right?

60. Scottish Government (2025) National Insurance Contributions: public sector costs. See table 2

61. See NHS Education for Scotland NHSScotland Workforce 30 June 2025 and NHS Education for Scotland (2025) General Practice Workforce Survey 2025

62. Public Health Scotland Cancelled planned operations, Month Ending 31 July 2025, 2 September 2025

63. Public Health Scotland NHS waiting times – stage of treatment – Inpatients, day cases and new outpatients, 26 August 2025

64. Scottish Government (2022) National Drugs Mission Plan: 2022-2026

65. Fraser of Allander Institute (2025) The Economic Impact of Scotland’s Renewable Energy Sector – 2025 Update. Estimates are for GVA in 2022, based on direct, indirect and induced activity and employment

66. Scottish Government Renewable and low carbon energy: Offshore wind (last accessed September 2025)

67. UK Government (2025) Sub-national total final energy consumption data. For Scotland in 2023, final energy consumption from manufactured fuels, petroleum and gas as a percentage of total final energy consumption

68. Scottish Government (2024) Industry statistics (last accessed 7 August 2025), tables 2.6 (employment) and 2.2 (GVA), Food and Drink

69. The total value of Scotch whisky exports in was £5,398 million in current prices in 2024 (HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics for Scotch whisky (last accessed 7 August 2025)). The total value of food and drink exports from the UK was £24.4 billion in current prices in 2024 (HMRC (2025) HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics for Food and Drink (last accessed 7 August 2025))

70. The total value of Atlantic salmon exports in was £844 million in current prices in 2024 (HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics Overseas trade data table for Fresh or chilled Atlantic salmon (last accessed 7 August 2025)). )). The total value of food and drink exports from the UK was £24.4 billion in current prices in 2024 (HMRC (2025) HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics for Food and Drink (last accessed 7 August 2025))

71. Scottish Government (2024) Industry statistics (last accessed 7 August 2025), ), tables 2.6 (employment) and 2.2 (GVA), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries)

72. Scottish Government (2025) Trends In Rural Scotland: a working paper, page 21

73. Scottish Government (2024) Industry statistics (last accessed 7 August 2025), tables 2.6 (employment) and 2.2 (GVA), Creative Industries (including Digital)

74. Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2025 (accessed August 2025)

75. HESA Higher Education Student Statistics: UK, 2023/24, Figure 9, Country of HE provider: Scotland, Total Non-UK (last accessed August 2025)

76. HESA HE student enrolments by permanent address and region of HE provider detailed breakdown, Students with a permanent address outside the UK (last accessed August 2025)

77. Cannings, J et al. (2023) The Benefits and Costs of International Higher Education Students to the UK Economy London Economics. The figures present the ‘net economic impact of the 2021/22 cohort of international students on the UK economy by region of the institution that they attended. Clearly, the distribution of net economic impact by region of institution is closely linked to the number of students in the cohort attending institutions in each region.’ (p.47)

78. Based on the share of the population in different countries with a university or college education uses available statistics on ‘Tertiary Education’ published by the OECD (for OECD countries) and Eurostat (for non-OECD EU countries) as a proxy. See OECD Regional Educational Statistics data for Scotland and OECD EU countries (Select Age: 25 to 64 years; Education level: tertiary; Territorial level: Country (for OECD EU countries) or TL2 (for Scotland), (accessed September 2025) and Eurostat Population by educational attainment level (select Age: 25 to 64 years; Sex: Total; International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED 2011): Tertiary education (levels 5 – 8) for non-OECD EU countries (accessed September 2025). UK level data for 2024 had not yet been added to the dataset at the time of writing, so was taken from the OECD’s Education at a Glance indicators 2025, table A1.1 (accessed September 2025).

79. Scottish Government (2024) Offshore Wind Focus

80. Scottish Government (2025) Offshore wind – potential project capital value: factsheet

81. Resolution Foundation (2025) The Living Standards Outlook 2025

82. Bell, T (2025) Staggering but true: in 2024, the typical male worker was earning 7 per cent less than their predecessor twenty years earlier, back in 2004, Bluesky, 20 February 2025 (last accessed 7 August 2025)

83. Figure consistent with change from 2004 to 2024 calculated using Office for National Statistics Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and Consumer Price Index data (last accessed 28 August 2025). In this context, “earnings of typical male workers” are defined as gross median weekly earnings for all male employees. Real pay is nominal pay adjusted for inflation using CPI estimates for April of each year

84. Resolution Foundation (2024) More, more, more: Putting the 2024 Autumn Budget in context, p.6

85. National Records of Scotland (2025) Projected Population of Scotland: 2022-Based (last accessed 7 August 2025)

86. De Lyon, J et al (2022) Enduring strengths – The Inquiry (Resolution Foundation)

87. Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity United Kingdom exports 2023, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) for pharmaceuticals (e.g. Medicaments, packaged) (last accessed 7 August 2025)

88. Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity United Kingdom exports 2023, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) for beverages (e.g. Spirits <80% alcohol) (last accessed 7 August 2025)

89. Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity (accessed April 2025), United Kingdom exports 2023, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) for aircraft (e.g. Parts of other aircraft) (last accessed 7 August 2025)

90. Based on the share of the population in different countries with a university or college education uses available statistics on ‘Tertiary Education’ published by the OECD (for OECD countries) and Eurostat (for non-OECD EU countries) as a proxy. See OECD Regional Educational Statistics data for Scotland and OECD EU countries (Select Age: 25 to 64 years; Education level: tertiary; Territorial level: Country (for OECD EU countries) or TL2 (for Scotland), (accessed September 2025) and Eurostat Population by educational attainment level (select Age: 25 to 64 years; Sex: Total; International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED 2011): Tertiary education (levels 5 – 8) for non-OECD EU countries (accessed September 2025). UK level data for 2024 had not yet been added to the dataset at the time of writing, so was taken from the OECD’s Education at a Glance indicators 2025, table A1.1 (accessed September 2025)

91. Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2025 (last accessed August 2025)

92. Discussed in Baccaro, L et al. (2022) Diminishing Returns: The New Politics of Growth and Stagnation (Oxford Academic) Chapter 8

93. McCann, P. (2019) Perceptions of regional inequality and the geography of discontent: insights from the UK. Regional Studies, 54(2), 256–267. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2019.1619928

94. UK Government (2022), Levelling Up the United Kingdom: Executive Summary, p1

95. Cameron, D Transforming the British economy: Coalition strategy for economic growth (UK Government speech, May 2010)

96. Brown, G (2016) Gordon Brown: Building a fairer, more united UK (World Economic Forum)

97. Harvard University (2022) Tony Blair – Britain’s growing regional divides

98. The Economist (2025) Why Britons pay so much for electricity (last accessed August 2025)

99. The Economist (2025) Why Britons pay so much for electricity (last accessed August 2025)

100. In addition to the analysis presented in this paper, please see Scottish Government (2022) Independence in the Modern World

101. See for example Office for Budget Responsibility (2023) Economic and fiscal outlook March 2023; Centre for Economic Performance (2019) The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals; Centre for European Reform (2023) Are the costs of Brexit big or small?

102. UK Government and Parliament (2024) Apply for the UK to join the European Union as a full member as soon as possible – Petitions, UK Government response

103. See for example, Hansard (2024) Engagements – Hansard – UK Parliament, Prime Minister’s response to Q13

104. See for example, Scottish Government (2025) The Ending of Freedom of Movement – Migration – Meeting Scotland’s Needs

105. National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2023) Revisiting the Effect of Brexit – NIESR

106. Scottish Government calculation – the estimated decrease in the size of the economy of 2.5% in 2023 from National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2023) NiGEM Topical Feature Revisiting the effect of Brexit is applied to the UK’s current price GDP in 2023 to calculate the difference in size of the economy with and without Brexit in 2023. The tax-to-GDP ratio for 2022-23 is then used to calculate the difference in tax revenue between those scenarios

107. Scottish Government calculation – based on calculation of the estimated decrease in the size of the economy of 2.5% in 2023 from National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2023) NiGEM Topical Feature Revisiting the effect of Brexit is applied to the UK’s current price GDP in 2023 to calculate the difference in size of the economy with and without Brexit in 2023. The tax-to-GDP ratio for 2022-23 is then used to calculate the difference in tax revenue between those scenarios and adjusted by population share

108. Bakker, JD et al (2023) Brexit and consumer food prices: 2023 update (Centre for Economic Performance)

109. Bakker, JD et al (2023) Brexit and consumer food prices: 2023 update (Centre for Economic Performance). This impact was identified in the social and equality assessment of the impacts of Brexit undertaken by Dr Eve Hepburn for the Scottish Government – see Scottish Government (2020) Brexit: social and equality impacts

110. House of Commons Library (2025) The UK–EU reset: Next steps after the May 2025 summit

111. House of Commons Library (2025) Resetting the UK’s relationship with the European Union

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113. The 0.2% figure is a Scottish Government calculation based on ONS GDP data for the UK: Office of National Statistics (2025) GDP – data tables – June 2025 release and the Office for Budget Responsibility (2022) Fiscal risks and sustainability – July 2022

114. Office for Budget Responsibility (2025) Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2025

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117. For more information see Scottish Government (2025) Building a New Scotland Migration to Scotland after independence, p12 and National Records of Scotland (2020) Mid-Year Population Estimates Scotland, Mid-2019 p11

118. National Records of Scotland (2025) Projected population of Scotland: 2022-based (last accessed 7 August 2025). The proportion of people who are of working age is projected to be slightly smaller in mid-2047 (64.4%) than in mid-2022 (64.7%)

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129. Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2025) Economic and employment growth alone will not be enough to reduce poverty levels

130. National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2025) UK Living Standards Review 2025 – NIESR

131. National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2025) UK Living Standards Review 2025 – NIESR, see chart 1.3

132. National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2025) UK Living Standards Review 2025 – NIESR

133. Scottish Government (2023) Building a New Scotland: an independent Scotland in the EU, p 22, Table 1

134. In addition to the analysis presented in this paper, please see Scottish Government (2022) Independence in the Modern World

135. OECD (2025) Life expectancy at birth (last accessed 1 October 2025). Data for 2023.

136. See for example Helliwell J et al. (2025) The World Happiness Report 2025

137. OECD (2025) GDP per capita (US dollars per person, PPP converted, Chain linked volume (rebased), 2020) (last accessed 1 October 2025). Calculations based on constant prices

138. OECD Income Inequality, 0 – 1 scale all ages (last accessed 1 October 2025). Income inequality describes how income is distributed among the population. This is distinct from wealth inequality, which instead describes the distribution of wealth (for example, property, financial assets and accumulated pension, less debts). Data on wealth inequality is less frequently measured by countries and so is more difficult to compare

139. OECD (2025) Income distribution, Poverty rate based on disposable income, 50% of the national median (last accessed 1 October 2025)

140. OECD (2025) OECD Productivity levels – GDP per hour worked (last accessed 1 October 2025). Calculations based on constant prices

141. OECD Investment by Sector (data for United Kingdom in 2024 not yet available); World Bank Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Sector (both last accessed 1 October 2025). Notes: Ireland is an outlier with respect to this indicator and has been excluded from the chart for presentational reasons. Comparable data are not available for Iceland for this indicator. Business investment as a share of GDP has been calculated by multiplying Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) expressed as a percentage of GDP by the proportion of corporate investment in total GFCF for each country

142. OECD (2025) OECD Productivity levels – GDP per hour worked (last accessed 1 October 2025)

143. Resolution Foundation (2023) Ending Stagnation: A New Economic Strategy for Britain, p269

144. This analysis broadly follows the methodology outlined in Chapter 9 of Resolution Foundation (2023) Ending Stagnation: A New Economic Strategy for Britain. The list of comparator countries is defined in Scottish Government (2024) Independence in the Modern World. Comparable data on household incomes and income shares is sourced from OECD Income Distribution Database for all countries; Scottish data is sourced from Scottish Government Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland 2019-22

145. O’Rourke, K (2019) A Short History of Brexit (Pelican), p143. Ireland’s comparative performance through this period is also discussed in detail in O Grada, C and O’Rourke, K (2021) The Irish economy during the century after partition (The Economic History Review)

146. Sources: World Bank Population – Population data; OECD Annual GDP and consumption per capita, US $, volume, constant PPPs, reference year 2020 – GDP per head; OECD Annual net national income per capita, US $, volume, constant PPPs, reference year 2020 – NNI per head; UN Comtrade – Exports and Imports Data; Economics Observatory (2021) Ireland’s economy since independence: what lessons from the past 100 years? – previous years

147. Net National Income per head is included in this table because there are widely recognised problems with using GDP as a measure of the Irish economy. These have been set out by the Central Bank of Ireland in, Byrne S, Conefrey T and O’Grady M (2021) The Disconnection of GDP from Economic Activity Carried out in Ireland (Central Bank of Ireland) and FitzGerald, J. (2018). National Accounts for a Global Economy: the case of Ireland, QEC Special Article, Dublin: Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

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