Exports Statistics Scotland 2023

Decreases in international exports were driven by ‘coke, refined petroleum & chemicals’

Between 2022 and 2023, the largest value decreases were in ‘food & drink’ (down 16% to £7.5 billion), ‘coke, refined petroleum & chemicals’ (down 19% to £3.4 billion) and ‘wholesale, retail & vehicle repair’ (down 23% to £2.2 billion).

Since 2018, the most impactful value decreases were in ‘coke, refined petroleum & chemicals’ (down 38%), ‘transport equipment’ (down 40% to £1.0 billion) and ‘rubber, plastic & other non-metallic minerals’ (down 60% to £405 million).

From a peak in 2017, ‘coke, refined petroleum & chemicals’ has been on a downward trend in real terms. A spike in current price export value which is not seen in real terms, coincides with the first year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and likely reflects increased prices due to supply and demand effects.

Figure 6. ‘Coke, refined petroleum & chemicals’ has shown strong inflation in recent years

International export value (£ million) in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023

Exports of ‘transport equipment’ show an earlier and more pronounced divergence between current price values and real terms estimates, suggesting inflationary effects began earlier for this sector. The value of this export sector has been on a general decline since 2017. A modest increase in 2023 is more pronounced in current prices than in real terms, suggesting there was a recent increase in inflationary pressure.

Figure 7. From a peak in 2017, ‘transport equipment’ has shown a downward trend

International export value (£ million) in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023

There has been a general decline in the value of ‘rubber, plastic & other non-metallic minerals’ since 2011, which increased in pace following 2018. While year on year changes have been smaller, the cumulative effect of successive declines has caused this relatively small sector to exert a greater influence over overall changes in export value over the long term.

Figure 8. Exports of ‘rubber, plastic & other non-metallic minerals’ have considerably declined since 2018

International export value (£ million) in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023

The value of ‘wholesale, retail & vehicle repair’ exports has shown a relatively high degree of fluctuation since 2015, with a general decline in real terms since 2017 through to 2020. Between 2020 and 2022 real terms estimates rose to a series high before declining in 2023. The pattern of change since 2020 resembles that of the largest manufacturing sectors, which might suggest this service sector is more heavily influenced by commodity prices than other service sectors.

Figure 9. ‘Wholesale, retail & vehicle repair’ exports peaked in 2022

International export value (£ million) in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023

International ‘food & drink’ exports are at comparable levels to 2018 in real terms, with a general upward trend in current price value suggesting an increasing inflation effect over that period. Export value declined in 2020, then between 2021 and 2022 recovered and exceeded previous levels before declining again in 2023.

The majority of Scotland’s international export value in the ‘food & drink’ category consists of Scotch whisky. HMRC’s trade statistics show similar trends in the value of whisky exports. Export values fell sharply in 2020 but recovered strongly in 2022, as the industry benefited from the reopening of hospitality businesses in key global markets and the revival of travel retail. However, export values subsequently fell in 2023, reflecting what the industry has described as a more typical trading year following the exceptionally strong rebound in 2022.

Figure 10. ‘Food & drink’ has returned to previous levels after a peak in 2022

International export value (£ million) in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023