Exports Statistics Scotland 2023
This publication presents estimates of the value of international and rest of the UK exports for all sectors of the Scottish economy from 2008 to 2023. Figures for changes over time are presented in 'real terms' meaning they have been adjusted for inflation. All values (£) of trade are given in current prices.
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Decreases in exports to the rest of the UK driven by ‘financial & insurance’
Since the previous year, the largest decreases in exports to the rest of the UK were seen in ‘wholesale, retail & vehicle repair’ (down 12% to £8.0 billion), ‘utilities’ (down 16% to £7.9 billion), and ‘mining & quarrying’ (down 22% to £1.8 billion).
Over the longer term (2018 to 2023) ‘financial & insurance’ exports (down 30% to £8.8 billion), ‘mining & quarrying’ (down 28%), and ‘coke, refined petroleum and chemicals’ (down 26% to £1.8 billion) also saw considerable decreases in value.
‘Financial & insurance’ exports, the top valued export sector, has seen recent declines in the value of exports to the rest of the UK. The value of ‘financial & insurance’ exports fell sharply between 2008 and 2011, coinciding with the global financial crisis in 2009. These export values rose considerably in 2017 before a general decline through to 2023. Real terms estimates suggest the value of these exports in 2023 is roughly equivalent to their value in 2011, following the financial crash.
Figure 23. Rest of the UK ‘financial & insurance’ exports in 2023 were similar to lows following the financial crash in 2008
Value (£million) of exports to the rest of the UK in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023
Since 2009, ‘mining & quarrying’ sector exports to the rest of the UK have experienced negative inflation (deflation). This was particularly pronounced in 2014 and 2015. Since then, the value of exports to the rest of the UK from this sector have fallen by two thirds (66%) to £1.9 billion in 2023. This decline is perhaps not surprising in the context of an adjustment to the energy industry to increasing the use of renewable energy sources.
Figure 24. ‘Mining and quarrying’ exports to the rest of the UK have fallen by two thirds since 2015
Value (£ million) of exports to the rest of the UK in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023
It should be noted that while ‘utilities’ is the third most important sector in value terms for exports to the rest of the UK (comprising 14% of exports in 2023), this sector has experienced stronger inflation effects than most other sectors in recent years, which is likely contributing to its increased share of exports.
High inflation in utilities is well documented during this period. Gas and electricity prices experienced significant increases and volatility throughout 2021 and 2022, with wholesale prices peaking around August/September 2022. This was due to a number of factors, including increased demand after the pandemic; supply chain constraints; and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prices started to decrease in late 2022, levelling out across 2023. Though they have not returned to their previous levels.
Figure 25. ‘Utilities’ exports to the rest of the UK experienced especially strong inflation in recent years
Value (£ million) of exports to the rest of the UK in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023
In contrast to international exports, ‘Food & drink’ exports to the rest of the UK did not see a decline during 2020. While export value has fallen in the latest year, it appears less severe than the decline in the international export value. Both ‘food & drink’ exports to the rest of the UK and to international markets appear to have been heavily influenced by inflation in recent years.
Figure 26. ‘Food & drink’ exports to the rest of the UK were impacted by inflation in recent years
Value (£ million) to the rest of the UK in current prices and real terms (deflated and chain-linked, index year = 2008), 2008-2023