Scottish Budget - implications of the UK Government fiscal statements: expert panel final commentary

Independent economic advice to the Scottish Government on the current challenges in the economic and fiscal context and how the Scottish Government could respond to the challenges it is facing through the tax system and the wider implications for public services and the economy.


1 Implications of the UK Government fiscal statements for the Scottish Government Budget: expert panel interim commentary - (

2 HM Treasury (2022). Autumn Statement. Documents.

3 Office for Budget Responsibility (2022). Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

4 £20.6 billion of the £24.8 billion of additional revenue raised in 2027-28 comes from decisions to: freeze the employer NICs threshold (£5.8 billion); extend the Energy Profits Levy and introduce an Electricity Generator Levy (£5.7 billion); implement the global minimum corporation tax (£2.3 billion); reduce zero-band and first time buyer stamp duty thresholds (£1.6 billion); increase taxation of electric cars (£1.6 billion); reduce allowances for dividends and capital gains tax (£1.4 billion); reform R&D tax reliefs (£1.3 billion); and reduce the income tax additional rate threshold (£0.9 billion)

5 Scotland's Fiscal Outlook: The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy - (

6 One statement, two challenges • Resolution Foundation

7 Office for Budget Responsibility (2022). Economic and Fiscal Outlook, paragraph 57.

8 As set out in the OBR’s commentary in their latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook, paragraphs 16 and 34.

9 Public Sector Employment in Scotland Statistics for 2nd Quarter 2022 - (

10 See for example Delestre, I., Kopczuk, W., Miller, H. and Smith, K. (2022), ‘Top income inequality and tax policy’, IFS Deaton Review of Inequalities.

11 There are a number of reforms that could be made to property taxes which could make it fairer and more progressive. These range from smaller reforms, such as revaluations of bands to reflect the latest local property prices, to more radical reforms such as proposed by IPPR Scotland.

12 See for example, STUC (2022) Scotland_Demands_Better_Fairer_Taxes_for_a_Fairer_ Future.pdf (

13 See

14 Vacant land tax discussions at an impasse (

15 See, for example, Stagnation nation - The Inquiry (

16 See analysis by Ben Zaranko, Autumn Statement 2022: IFS analysis | Institute for Fiscal Studies

17 Based on the 2022-23 Budget, excluding public sector pensions funded through UK government AME:

18 A Haldane with I Rebolledo (2022). Health is wealth? Strengthening the ’s immune system. The Health Foundation.

19 Office for Budget Responsibility (2022). Economic and Fiscal Outlook, paragraph 18.

20 Scottish Government (2022). Best Start, Bright Futures: tackling child poverty delivery plan 2022 to 2026



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