Estimated and projected diagnosis rates for dementia in Scotland 2014-2020
A first report into estimated and projected dementia diagnosis rates in Scotland from 2014 to 2020, based on data from health boards in Scotland.
2. Results
The resulting estimations and projections were as follows:-
Table 1. Estimated and Projected Number of Individuals to be Diagnosed with Dementia in Scotland - 2014 to 2020.
| Year | Total | 95% Confidence Intervals (Byar's Method) | Under 60 | 60-64 | 65-69 | 70-74 | 75 -79 | 80-84 | 85-89 | 90+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 16,712 | 16,078; 17,382 | 268 | 343 | 878 | 1,742 | 3,198 | 4,336 | 3,699 | 2,246 |
| 2015 | 17,097 | 16,036; 18,220 | 268 | 344 | 899 | 1,766 | 3,228 | 4,430 | 3,812 | 2,349 |
| 2016 | 17,496 | 16,411; 18,644 | 268 | 348 | 911 | 1,818 | 3,223 | 4,516 | 3,945 | 2,466 |
| 2017 | 17,994 | 16,879; 19,172 | 268 | 356 | 875 | 1,972 | 3,254 | 4,590 | 4,106 | 2,572 |
| 2018 | 18,489 | 17,345; 19,697 | 268 | 364 | 861 | 2,058 | 3,322 | 4,708 | 4,232 | 2,675 |
| 2019 | 18,989 | 17,817; 20,229 | 268 | 372 | 857 | 2,117 | 3,403 | 4,807 | 4,356 | 2,809 |
| 2020 | 19,473 | 18,271; 20,743 | 267 | 381 | 861 | 2,170 | 3,460 | 4,876 | 4,503 | 2,954 |
Note: Due to rounding within the age groups, the sum of the age groups may not equal the Scotland total for the year.
Source: SMR01, SMR04, SMR50, NHS Ayrshire& Arran, NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde, NHS Lanarkshire.
In 2014 there were an estimated 16,712 individuals newly diagnosed with dementia in Scotland. By 2020, this number is estimated to increase by 17% to 19,473. The age group with the most estimated diagnosis of dementia appears to be 80-84 year olds.
The rates used assume that rate of diagnosis will stay the same for each age band, and therefore, any increases evidenced in the table are due to population growth.
A more visual representation of the depicted increase of diagnoses can be seen via the chart overleaf.
CHART 1. Estimated and Projected Number of Individuals Diagnosed with Dementia; Calendar Years 2014-2020.
For more detail on NHS Board-specific projections between 2014 and 2020, please refer to Appendix 1 at the end of the report.
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