Publication - Research and analysis

Estimated and projected diagnosis rates for dementia in Scotland 2014-2020

A first report into estimated and projected dementia diagnosis rates in Scotland from 2014 to 2020, based on data from health boards in Scotland.

2014	Estimated Number of individuals Diagnosed
	Total	Under 60	60-64	65-69	70-74	75-79	80-84	85-89	90+
Scotland	16,712	268	343	878	1,742	3,198	4,336	3,699	2,246
Ayrshire & Arran	1,138	19	22	52	122	214	301	251	157
Borders	446	5	9	24	48	86	114	100	60
Dumfries & Galloway	615	7	12	32	66	118	163	136	81
Fife	1,192	18	25	67	129	229	301	263	161
Forth Valley	904	15	19	51	100	184	230	191	114
Grampian	1,716	30	37	93	175	319	440	389	234
Greater Glasgow & Clyde	3,389	59	67	191	361	673	877	734	427
Highland	1,165	15	24	64	128	221	298	254	161
Lanarkshire	1,984	32	46	94	201	385	544	429	253
Lothian	2,399	45	49	123	238	443	616	544	342
Orkney	79	1	2	4	9	15	19	17	11
Shetland	71	1	2	4	8	13	17	16	10
Tayside	1,501	20	28	74	146	278	389	348	219
Western Isles	115	1	2	6	12	21	28	28	18

Notes:

1. Actual numbers submitted were used for NHS Ayrshire & Arran, NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde and NHS Lanarkshire

2. Source: Local date collection from; NHS Ayrshire& Arran, NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde & NHS Lanarkshire, combined with SMR01, SMR04 and SMR50.

2015	Estimated Number of individuals Diagnosed
	Total	Under 60	60-64	65-69	70-74	75-79	80-84	85-89	90+
Scotland	17,097	268	344	899	1,766	3,228	4,430	3,812	2,349
Ayrshire & Arran	1,352	18	27	73	148	260	353	290	184
Borders	456	5	9	25	48	88	115	102	63
Dumfries & Galloway	631	7	12	32	67	121	165	142	85
Fife	1,220	18	24	68	133	232	307	272	166
Forth Valley	930	15	19	52	102	186	238	198	120
Grampian	1,757	30	37	96	176	324	451	396	249
Greater Glasgow & Clyde	3,375	59	67	165	331	631	901	760	460
Highland	1,199	15	24	65	130	226	305	263	169
Lanarkshire	1,919	33	43	106	211	383	506	411	226
Lothian	2,452	45	49	127	243	445	626	560	357
Orkney	82	1	2	4	9	16	19	18	12
Shetland	73	1	2	4	8	14	18	16	11
Tayside	1,534	20	27	76	148	280	397	356	230
Western Isles	118	1	2	6	11	21	29	27	19

2016	Estimated and Projected Number of individuals Diagnosed
	Total	Under 60	60-64	65-69	70-74	75-79	80-84	85-89	90+
Scotland	17,496	268	348	911	1,818	3,223	4,516	3,945	2,466
Ayrshire & Arran	1,386	18	27	73	152	262	360	301	194
Borders	467	5	9	25	50	89	117	105	66
Dumfries & Galloway	648	7	12	32	69	121	171	147	89
Fife	1,250	18	25	69	138	231	318	276	175
Forth Valley	955	15	19	53	105	187	247	204	124
Grampian	1,798	30	38	97	183	323	459	409	260
Greater Glasgow & Clyde	3,429	59	69	168	335	623	909	786	480
Highland	1,232	15	25	66	135	228	312	274	177
Lanarkshire	1,972	33	43	107	216	383	521	429	239
Lothian	2,512	45	50	129	251	445	635	581	375
Orkney	84	1	2	4	10	17	19	19	13
Shetland	75	1	2	4	9	14	18	16	11
Tayside	1,567	20	27	76	153	278	400	371	242
Western Isles	120	1	2	6	12	22	30	27	19

2017	Projected Number of individuals Diagnosed
	Total	Under 60	60-64	65-69	70-74	75-79	80-84	85-89	90+
Scotland	17,994	268	356	875	1,972	3,254	4,590	4,106	2,572
Ayrshire & Arran	1,430	17	27	70	165	266	367	318	200
Borders	480	5	9	24	56	90	121	108	68
Dumfries & Galloway	668	7	12	31	74	124	175	152	95
Fife	1,289	18	25	65	152	235	329	282	183
Forth Valley	989	15	20	51	115	188	257	215	129
Grampian	1,853	30	38	93	201	330	464	424	272
Greater Glasgow & Clyde	3,498	59	71	162	360	615	912	824	494
Highland	1,273	15	25	64	145	235	317	287	186
Lanarkshire	2,034	33	44	104	232	387	533	449	252
Lothian	2,581	46	51	124	275	451	641	598	395
Orkney	88	1	2	4	10	18	20	19	13
Shetland	78	1	2	4	9	15	19	17	12
Tayside	1,610	20	28	72	167	280	405	384	254
Western Isles	123	1	2	6	13	22	31	28	20

2018	Projected Number of individuals Diagnosed
	Total	Under 60	60-64	65-69	70-74	75-79	80-84	85-89	90+
Scotland	18,489	268	364	861	2,058	3,322	4,708	4,232	2,675
Ayrshire & Arran	1,475	17	28	69	171	273	376	333	208
Borders	495	5	9	23	58	93	125	111	70
Dumfries & Galloway	687	7	12	30	76	128	176	159	99
Fife	1,327	18	26	63	159	244	337	291	189
Forth Valley	1,022	15	20	50	120	193	266	223	134
Grampian	1,905	30	39	92	212	337	475	436	284
Greater Glasgow & Clyde	3,566	59	74	161	373	616	926	846	511
Highland	1,314	15	25	63	152	244	327	297	193
Lanarkshire	2,100	33	45	103	241	395	547	472	263
Lothian	2,651	46	53	122	289	458	662	611	410
Orkney	91	1	2	4	10	18	22	19	14
Shetland	81	1	2	4	9	16	20	16	13
Tayside	1,649	20	28	71	176	285	416	388	265
Western Isles	126	1	2	6	13	22	31	29	21

2019	Projected Number of individuals Diagnosed
	Total	Under 60	60-64	65-69	70-74	75-79	80-84	85-89	90+
Scotland	18,989	268	372	857	2,117	3,403	4,807	4,356	2,809
Ayrshire & Arran	1,516	17	28	68	174	283	384	345	216
Borders	511	5	9	23	60	95	131	114	74
Dumfries & Galloway	706	7	12	30	78	132	179	165	105
Fife	1,367	18	26	62	163	254	346	301	196
Forth Valley	1,055	15	21	49	123	198	277	230	142
Grampian	1,958	30	39	91	222	343	484	449	299
Greater Glasgow & Clyde	3,636	59	76	161	382	622	936	865	535
Highland	1,358	15	25	62	156	253	337	305	205
Lanarkshire	2,163	32	46	104	247	405	559	488	282
Lothian	2,722	46	54	122	299	471	674	628	428
Orkney	95	1	2	4	10	19	23	20	15
Shetland	84	1	2	4	10	17	20	17	13
Tayside	1,689	20	29	70	181	289	423	399	277
Western Isles	130	1	2	6	14	22	32	30	23

2020	Projected Number of individuals Diagnosed
	Total	Under 60	60-64	65-69	70-74	75-79	80-84	85-89	90+
Scotland	19,473	267	381	861	2,170	3,460	4,876	4,503	2,954
Ayrshire & Arran	1,558	17	29	68	177	289	393	359	227
Borders	525	5	10	23	61	97	135	117	77
Dumfries & Galloway	725	6	12	30	78	134	184	169	111
Fife	1,405	18	27	62	166	262	353	311	206
Forth Valley	1,087	15	21	49	127	203	282	241	150
Grampian	2,009	30	40	92	230	346	494	464	312
Greater Glasgow & Clyde	3,703	58	78	164	390	627	928	894	562
Highland	1,399	15	26	62	159	258	347	316	216
Lanarkshire	2,222	32	47	105	253	409	572	504	299
Lothian	2,790	46	56	123	308	482	681	645	449
Orkney	99	1	2	4	10	19	26	21	16
Shetland	87	1	2	4	10	17	21	19	14
Tayside	1,730	20	30	69	185	294	429	412	291
Western Isles	133	1	2	5	14	22	33	31	23

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