Techscaler Programme 2022-2024: early evaluation - main report

Appendix F: Techscaler Programme theory of change

Introduction

Theory of Change is a framework tool that projects and programmes can use to articulate (usually using images/infographics) how, and why, they expect to achieve a desired long-term goal. The framework highlights the causal linkages and why the inputs and activities have led to a series of connected outputs, outcomes, and impacts (or why it has not worked as intended — the intended and unintended outcomes).

A theory of change was developed for the Techscaler Programme in partnership between the Scottish Government and CodeBase to help better articulate what the programme intends to deliver (and for what beneficiaries), and importantly, to inform the collection of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) data.

A theory of change was developed for each pillar of Techscaler Programme activity, namely:

1. Build core startup and scaleup skills.

2. Foster social infrastructure development.

3. Increase investor connectivity and internationalisation.

This work supported the development of a summary programme logic model that is used for wider dissemination, see figures below.

Techscaler Programme theory of change

The development of a theory of change and logic model for the Techscaler Programme has been relatively comprehensive and has added value to the programme by promoting a shared understanding between the Scottish Government and CodeBase and informed discussions regarding performance data and the gaps within existing collection methods.

From the evaluator’s perspective, the theory of change and logic model have:

• helped identify where gaps in the data and evidence exist which has informed the evaluation method, specifically, the Techscaler members survey sought to gather feedback to test the theory of change and fill the gaps.
• informed the recommendations with regards to improvements to ongoing monitoring and data collection.

We would, however, offer the following observations at this point that could strengthen the models and provide greater clarity.

A well develop theory of change can support the development and design of a project or programme by describing how the programme works and how planned activities will lead to intended outcomes.

Source: Developing a Theory of Change, Cabinet Office 2025

In the case of the Techscaler Programme this was developed retrospectively during its initial implementation phase. Development prior to design could have supported partners to ‘map backwards’ — work in reverse from the final goal to identify what short- and medium-term outcomes must occur, and the activities and outputs required to reach that goal. This could have informed the assumptions and risks, which ultimately inform planning and resource allocation.

Secondly, the complex models (necessarily by design) were shared and need to be presented in summary form to aid ease of understanding and assimilation. However, because of this simplification they perhaps underplay the complexity in the wider ecosystem and do not fully reflect the ‘top down’ policy environment, and wider macro-economic factors, assumptions and risks, and other actors/interventions that have an influence.

Finally, while the models have a relatively well-defined set of short- and longer-term outcomes, these could be considered more ‘enablers’ and there remains a lack of indicators and measures for defining what success looks like for Techscaler. As an example, there are no definitions with regards the ‘economy impacts’ in relation to business, employment, and economic growth.

This links to the point made regarding a degree of ambiguity on what success for the Techscaler Programme looks like.

Related to this point, the models could benefit from further detail on what metrics or approaches could be used to gather evidence to evidence progress towards delivering the programme’s outcomes.

Source: Scottish Government and CodeBase, Techscaler Summary Logic Model, September 2024

Alternative text for Techscaler current theory of change:

1. Inputs (What resources go into the programme)

• Scottish Government funding
• Techscaler team
• Mentors
• Connected investors
• International and domestic partners
• Members
• Community participants

2. Pillars (What the programme focuses on)

• Pillar 1: Build core startup and scaleup skills
• Pillar 2: Foster social infrastructure development
• Pillar 3: Increase investor connectivity and internationalisation

3. Activities (What the programme does under each pillar)

• Pillar 1 — Startup & scaleup skills
  • Asynchronous learning modules
  • Cohort courses
  • Mentorship
  • Partner integrations
  • Workshops
• Pillar 2 — Social infrastructure
  • Owned super‑connector events
  • Participation in partner and third‑party events
  • Signposting to third‑party support
  • Supporting cohorts outside direct service delivery
• Pillar 3 — Investor connectivity
  • High‑growth potential pathway
  • Direct access to active investors
  • International residencies
  • London integration

4. Short ‑term / Intermediate Outcomes (What happens first)

• Pillar 1 outcomes
  • Improved startup knowledge
  • Mindset, confidence, and motivation shift
  • More and better pitches
  • More companies registered
  • Faster early‑stage growth
  • Increased referrals to partner activity
• Pillar 2 outcomes
  • Better understanding of ecosystem support
  • Greater access to support
  • More referrals to partner services
  • More applications to Techscaler
• Pillar 3 outcomes
  • More investment deals completed
  • More inbound investor activity
  • Increased outbound international productivity
  • More international enquiries

5. Long ‑term Impact (What changes over time)

• Perceptions
  • Founders see Scotland as a good place to incorporate
  • Global ecosystems view Scotland as a strong startup location
  • Partners see Techscaler as a targeted support enabler
  • Founders find support easier to access
• Participants
  • Tech company valuations increase
  • Companies reach key milestones faster
  • Companies hire more efficiently
  • Unviable startups fail faster and recycle talent
• Sector
  • Higher profile for Scottish founders and employees
  • More organic community activity
  • More investment into Scottish tech companies
  • More exits and acquisitions

Overall Economic Impact

• Increased business creation, employment, and economic growth

Alternative Text for the Build Core Startup & Scaleup Skills Figure.

This figure presents a logic model showing how the Build Core Startup & Scaleup Skills pillar of the Techscaler programme progresses from inputs, through activities and outputs, toward short‑term and intermediate outcomes, and finally to long‑term impact.

1. Inputs (resources that support this pillar)

• Scottish Government funding and Techscaler team
• Mentors
• Connected investors
• International and domestic partners
• Members
• Community participants

These inputs provide the foundation for activities that develop founder capability and support startup progression.

2. Activities (what is delivered under this pillar)

The programme delivers a range of learning and support activities:

• Asynchronous learning modules
• Cohort courses
• Mentorship
• Partner integrations,
• Workshops,

These activities aim to build the knowledge, confidence, and practical capability of early‑stage founders.

3. Outputs (immediate results of activities)

Activities lead to several measurable outputs:

• Attendance and completion
• Satisfaction
• Follow‑on service engagement
• Referral

Outputs indicate direct engagement and immediate reaction to the support provided.

4. Short ‑term and Intermediate Outcomes (changes expected early on)

These outcomes represent early signs of progress as founders engage with the programme:

Knowledge and skills

• Improved knowledge of startup fundamentals
• Mindset, confidence, and motivation shift
• Higher‑quality pitches delivered by founders

Early business progression

• Increase in the number of companies registered
• Increase in the speed of core metric growth, such as user base or revenue

Engagement with wider ecosystem

• More referrals to complementary partner activity

These outcomes demonstrate early capability gains and business formation progress.

5. Long ‑term / Impact Outcomes (changes expected over time)

The model identifies long‑term outcomes across perceptions, participants, and the wider sector.

Perceptions

• Founders prefer to incorporate in Scotland due to access skilled talent and quality training resources
• Global ecosystems use Scotland as an example of leading start up education resources

Participants

• Increase in Scottish tech company valuations
• Time between achieving core growth milestones (e.g. fundraising stage) decreases for Scottish Tech companies

Sector

• Increased profile of Scottish tech founders and employees

Overall impact

• Economic improvement through business growth, employment growth, and increased economic activity

Alternative Text for the Foster Social Infrastructure Development Figure.

This figure presents a logic model describing how the Foster Social Infrastructure Development pillar of the Techscaler programme progresses from inputs, through activities and outputs, toward short‑term and intermediate outcomes, and finally to long‑term impact.

1. Inputs (resources enabling this pillar)

• Scottish Government funding and the Techscaler team
• Mentors
• Connected investors
• International and domestic partners
• Members
• Community participants

These inputs provide the foundation for supporting relationship‑building, networking, and ecosystem engagement.

2. Activities (what the programme delivers under this pillar)

• Owned super‑connector events, organised directly by Techscaler
• Contributions to partner and third‑party super‑connector events, including participation and support
• Signposting to third‑party and partner activities, ensuring founders and teams can navigate the ecosystem
• Supporting cohorts outside of direct service delivery, such as community groups or peer programmes

These activities focus on strengthening networks, relationships, and founder access to broader ecosystem support.

3. Outputs (immediate results of activities)

• Attendance and completion of events and related activity
• Satisfaction with events and engagement
• Events contributed to, representing collaboration with external partners
• Referrals and applications, including directing founders to partner programmes or to Techscaler services
• Follow‑on service engagement, such as continued participation in events or related support pathways

Outputs reflect direct engagement with the ecosystem‑building activities.

4. Short ‑term / Intermediate Outcomes (changes expected early on)

Improved understanding and access

• Improved understanding of ecosystem support
• Improved access to ecosystem support

Strengthened connections

• Increased referrals to complementary partner activities
• Increased applications to Techscaler

These outcomes show early evidence that founders and teams better understand the ecosystem and can access relevant opportunities more easily.

5. Long ‑term / Impact Outcomes (changes expected over time)

Perceptions

• Founders and teams view Scotland as a supportive ecosystem
• Founders find it easier to access relevant support
• Partners believe Techscaler is an enabler of targeted support

Participants

• Scottish tech companies hire teams faster and more efficiently
• Backlog of barriers to growth shifts from early‑stage (e.g., Seed) to later‑stage (e.g., Series A+)
• Increased Scottish tech company valuations

Sector

• Increase in the number of organic (non‑funded) community activities
• Government intervention reduces over time due to ecosystem maturity

Overall Impact

• Stronger sector‑wide conditions for startup and scaleup success
• Increased business creation, employment, and long‑term economic growth

Alternative Text for the Increase Investor Connectivity and Internationalisation Figure.

This figure presents a logic model showing how the Increase Investor Connectivity and Internationalisation pillar of the Techscaler programme progresses from inputs, through activities and outputs, toward short ‑term and intermediate outcomes, and finally to long ‑term impact.

1. Inputs (resources supporting this pillar)

• Scottish Government funding and the Techscaler team
• Mentors
• Connected investors
• International and domestic partners
• Members

These inputs enable delivery of activities that support investor access, international engagement, and scaling company pathways.

2. Activities (what the programme delivers under this pillar)

• High‑growth potential pathway for companies showing strong development potential
• Direct access to active investors, enabling tailored interactions
• International residencies, placing founders in global tech ecosystems
• London integration, connecting founders to the UK’s largest investment hub

These activities strengthen relationships between founders, investors, and international markets.

3. Outputs (immediate results of activities)

• Companies in the high‑growth potential pathway
• Fundraising reference materials, such as lookbooks
• Warm introductions between founders and investors
• Attendance and completion of investment‑focused activities
• Satisfaction with investor and internationalisation activities
• Follow‑on service engagement, including continued support after initial interactions

Outputs indicate engagement with investor access and international mobility initiatives.

4. Short ‑term / Intermediate Outcomes (changes expected early on)

• More investment deals completed
• Funding raised
• More inbound investor activity, including interest from new investors
• Increased outbound international startup productivity, such as new customers or supplier relationships abroad
• Increased inbound international inquiries, showing global interest in Scottish startups

These outcomes indicate stronger investor connections and early capital mobilisation.

5. Long ‑term / Impact Outcomes (changes expected over time)

Perceptions

• Founders view Scotland as a viable place to raise funding
• Investors view Scotland as a viable place to invest
• The global ecosystem views Scotland as a hub of high‑quality, exciting startups

Participants (companies and founders)

• Increase in Scottish tech company valuations
• Unsustainable companies fail earlier (instead of stalling), recycling talent back into the ecosystem

Sector

• Increased number of investment deals in Scottish tech companies
• Increased amount of investment raised into Scottish companies
• Increase in exits and acquisitions within the Scottish technology sector

Overall Economic Impact

• Business growth, job creation, and increased economic activity across Scotland

Source: Scottish Government and CodeBase, Techscaler Summary Logic Model.