Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic
Report presents the approach taken by the Scottish Government in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirements
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What the modelling tells us and how we talk about it
There are two main ways we talk about the epidemic and our short- and long term forecast of Covid-19 cases in Scotland.
The first of these is how many people in Scotland:
- still will be susceptible to Covid-19, i.e. they haven't yet got Covid-19.
- are currently infected with Covid-19 in Scotland.
- have recovered (or died) from Covid-19
at different points in the future based on the current social interventions in place. At the moment this is based on a range of measures, including "stay at home".
The information on infected people helps us to work out what the short term forecast for the number of bed (and ICU) we might need and how many people might get Covid-19 in the future given the transmission from those people to others under a number of scenarios e.g. easing social restrictions by for example opening schools.
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