Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland

Published: 21 May 2020

Report presents the approach taken by the Scottish Government in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirements

17 page PDF

498.1 kB

17 page PDF

498.1 kB

Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland
Acronyms

17 page PDF

498.1 kB

Acronyms

Acronym Description
IFR The infection-fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed with the disease in a certain period of time. An IFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of disease severity
COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since spread globally, resulting in an ongoing pandemic.
R0 The initial reproduction number. The average number of people an infected person transmitted the disease to at the start of the epidemic, before anyone has immunity to it.
Rt The reproduction number at a point in time; the average number of people an infected person transmitted the disease to at some point in the epidemic.
SAGE The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.
SPI-M The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) gives expert advice to the Department of Health and Social Care and wider UK government on scientific matters relating to the UK's response to an influenza pandemic (or other emerging human infectious disease threats).

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot