- Modelling of the epidemic in Scotland is undertaken to look at the progression of the epidemic and to inform logistical response required.
- This is done over two time periods. Short term, for the next two weeks, and longer term. Both these help to forecast Covid-19 in Scotland.
- A number of different models are used from academic groups across the UK and Scottish Government.
- We use the value of R to talk about Covid-19 in Scotland. On the 8th May R in Scotland was estimated at between 0.7 & 1.0.
- Before the stay at home guidance was put in place in Scotland, the value of R was significantly above 1.
- The modelling shows that the number of cases, hospital and ICT use and deaths are likely to fall slightly over the next two weeks.