Coronavirus (COVID-19): framework for decision making - assessing the four harms

Sets out the four harms process for assessment used to establish when coronavirus restrictions could be safely lifted after lockdown and the scientific evidence underpinning the decisions.

List of Figures and Tables

Figure 1 The age profile of Scotland

Figure 2 Age Structure of Council areas 2019

Figure 3 Age structure of Health Boards 2019

Figure 4 Positive cases per 100,000 by age, (28 February to 29 November 2020)

Figure 5 Pattern of new cases by age over time

Figure 6 Numbers of single adult households

Figure 7 Positive cases by deprivation category (SIMD) (28 February to 29 November 2020)

Figure 8 The value of R over time

Figure 9 Local Authority Clinical/Social Vulnerability by Local Authority (Source: ScotPHO Community Vulnerability Index)

Figure 10 Excess deaths, COVID-19 and non-Covid, April-November (Source: National Records of Scotland)

Figure 11 Numbers of emergency and planned admissions, Jan-Nov 2020 (Source: Scottish Government Four Harms Dashboard)

Figure 12 Numbers of attendances at Accident and Emergency (Source: Scottish Government Four Harms Dashboard)

Figure 13 Number of patients waiting for a diagnostic test; monthly trend (June 2018-Sept 2020) (Source: PHS NHS Waiting Times – Diagnostics)

Figure 14 Percentage of NHS Scotland total planned operations by reasons for cancellation, Sept 2019- September 2020 (Source: PHS)

Figure 15 Percent agreeing with the statement: "I would avoid going to a hospital or GP practice at the moment even if I had an immediate medical concern (not related to Coronavirus)"

Figure 16 Negative impacts on people who experience care at home and carers (% of respondents) (Source: Care Inspectorate 2020)

Figure 17 Percentage of respondents reporting moderate to severe depression or anxiety symptoms. Wave 1 SCOVID Mental Health Tracker (May/Jun 2020)

Figure 18 Percentage of respondents by gender reporting activity for at least 30 minutes on 5 or more days. Sport England COVID-19 Tracker (Apr – Oct)

Figure 19 Percentage of respondents reporting diet behaviours more or less compared to start of Coronavirus outbreak. Food Standards Scotland Consumer tracker survey wave 10 (July 2020)

Figure 20 Percentage of openings showing pupils were not in school because of COVID-19 related reasons

Figure 21 Social capital, community cohesion and loneliness

Figure 22 Happiness and anxiety reported

Figure 23 Optimism 'I'm sure things will start to get better soon'

Figure 24 Income deprivation by Local Authority

Figure 25 Perceived threat to job amongst those employed

Figure 26 Proportion of respondents who were very/extremely concerned about the scenarios shown

Figure 27 Scottish Welfare Fund Crisis Grant Applications

Figure 28 Trust in Government

Figure 29 Clarity on restrictions

Figure 30 Quarterly GDP Growth in Scotland and the UK, Q1 2016 to Q2 2020

Figure 31 Percentage Change in Monthly GDP, Scotland and the UK, March to September 2020, by Sector

Figure 32 Monthly Business Turnover by Sector, Scotland, Compared to the Previous Year

Figure 33 Proportion of businesses currently trading by sector, 2 November to 15 November 2020

Figure 34 Monthly Scottish Business Activity, August 2019 to October 2020

Figure 35 Scottish Retail Sales

Figure 36 Monthly Claimant Count in Scotland, up to September 2020

Figure 37 Take up of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, Scotland, September 2020, by Local Authority

Figure 38 Take up of the Second Self Employment Income Support Scheme, Scotland, 31st October 2020, by Local Authority

Figure 39 Share of Businesses Trading Over Time, 15 June to 15 November 2020

Figure 40 Proportion of Businesses Reporting weak cash reserves, 2 to 15 November 2020

Figure 41 Proportion of Businesses Reporting risk of insolvency, October 2020

Table 1 Average size of all households, and average number of children

Table 2 Dimensions of social harms



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