Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Act 2022: first report to the Scottish Parliament
First report to the Scottish Parliament on the Cost of Living (Tenant) Protection (Scotland) Act 2022, covering the period 28 October to 31 December 2022 as required by section 9(1)(a).
1. Defined in the Act as the 'permitted rate'
2. Introduced | Scottish Parliament Website
3. Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Bill: Fairer Scotland Duty assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Bill: business regulatory impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Bill: equalities impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Bill: island communities impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Bill: data protection impact assessment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).
4. Cost of Living Bill: economic background - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), Cost of Living Bill - Key Statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), Cost of Living Bill: research evidence summaries - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
5. Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics. Figures are shown for CPI rather than CPIH, since the latter includes owner occupiers' housing costs and thus is less relevant for assessing the cost of living pressures faced by rented households.
6. Based on ONS indicative modelling as the CPI national statistic series only begins in January 1997.
7. Projections taken from the Bank of England November 2022 Monetary Policy Report, using the mean projection conditioned on market interest rate expectations.
8. Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022.
9. Scottish Fiscal Commission, Scotland's Economic and fiscal Forecasts – December 2022.
10. OBR/SFC forecasts were published alongside/after the UK Government Autumn Statement, which contained more information on how the Energy Price Guarantee will work in 2023/24, resulting in a slightly lower forecast path for energy bills than the Bank of England had assumed.
11. ONS, Average weekly earnings in Great Britain.
12. Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
13. Private Sector Rent Statistics, Scotland, 2010 to 2022 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
14. Rental Price Tracker | Property blog (rightmove.co.uk)
15. Citylets Rental Market Reports
16. Zoopla UK Rental Market Report | Zoopla Advantage (zpg.co.uk)
17. For example, even if the underlying privately rented stock was unchanged, an increase in demand would mean that the average time a property needs to spend on the market before finding a buyer would decrease, which in turn would reduce the number of listings on letting agent websites at a given time. Generalising this point, if the increase in demand has been higher (or the decrease in demand has been lower) than the change in supply, then time to let and the stock of listings will fall, irrespective of whether the underlying privately rented stock has increased or decreased. The flow (as opposed to stock) of new listings may provide a better indicator of underlying stock, but this too can be affected by other factors; for example, if tenants begin to stay in their tenancies for longer due to greater security of tenancy, then the flow of new listings can fall even if the underlying private rented stock is unchanged (time to let and the stock of listings would also be affected by an increase in tenancy length).
18. See Table 3.8c at SHS Data Explorer (shinyapps.io)
19. Five-year fixed average rate drops below 6% | moneyfactsgroup.co.uk
20. Cost of Living Bill - Key Statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).
21. This estimate is based on data on the length of interest rate fixes for all residential lending, and thus assumes that the pattern for the buy-to-let sector is not significantly different.
22. Financial Conduct Authority data show that in relation to non-regulated residential lending (of which buy-to-let mortgages are the major component) in Q3 2022 80% of outstanding were interest-only. See MLAR Table 1.32 at Mortgage lending statistics - December 2022 | FCA.
23. Impact of increased cost of living on adults across Great Britain - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
24. From YouGov online polling for Scottish Government; fieldwork: week 127 - 23-25 August; Week 132 - 27-29 September; week 137 - 1-3 November; sample of c.1000 adults 18+ across Scotland each wave; weighted to be fully representative demographically and geographically. Data tables for all adults can be found here: Public attitudes to coronavirus, cost of living and Ukraine: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
25. This was part of a prompted list of potential concerns in the next 2-3 months
26. Not managing very well OR Having some financial difficulties OR In deep financial trouble
27. Not managing very well OR Having some financial difficulties OR In deep financial trouble
28. CAS launches 'Big Energy Saving Winter' campaign | Citizens Advice Scotland
29. Unpublished People's Panel Wellbeing 2022 and Beyond research findings
30. UK 18-35 Renters – Opinium
31. Cost of living and higher education students, England - Office for National Statistics
32. Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Poverty in Scotland, 2021
33. Based on analysis provided by social sector landlord representatives
34. Data Reports | Citizens Advice Scotland (cas.org.uk)
35. Scottish Household Survey Annual Report Tables 2019
36. Scottish Government Statistical publication on Wealth in Scotland 2006-2020
37. (As reported in Cost of Living Bill - Key Statistics, based on DWP StatXplore Tables for May 2022, compared with latest available rented stock figures)
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