Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 5 March 2021

Published: 5 Mar 2021

Brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 5 March 2021
Key Points

Key Points

  • The reproduction rate R in Scotland is currently estimated as being below 1, (i.e. between 0.7 and 0.9).
  • An average of 521 cases were reported per day in the 7 days to 4 March, which is a 33% decrease in reported cases since the 25 February.
  • There were 72 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 1 March. This compares to 302 weekly cases per 100,000 on 8 January and is now similar to the weekly case rate observed at the end of September. This has been decreasing for the last week suggesting a decline in the weekly case rate after a short plateau.
  • Cases and deaths are declining the most in the over 75s suggesting an impact from vaccination in this age group.
  • The estimated proportion of people becoming infected with Covid remains below England, Northern Ireland and Wales as determined through the weekly ONS survey.
  • Latest modelled estimates suggest there are currently between 14 and 32 new daily infections per 100,000 people in Scotland.
  • Average daily deaths are level with England and Wales, but higher than those reported for Northern Ireland.
  • Falkirk currently has the highest weekly case rate in Scotland reporting 144 cases per 100,000 in the last week, while the Orkney and Shetland Islands have reported no cases in the same time.
  • At a national level hospital bed and ICU occupancy are projected to fall over the next few weeks, but with the potential to plateau or increase as a result of schools reopening.
  • Over 1.6 million people in Scotland have now been vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, with the initial target for older care home residents having been surpassed.
  • The current UK variant of concern has been increasing its share of confirmed cases since it was first detected in Scotland in mid-December and is now the dominant strain. A small number (5) cases of the 'Brazilian' P1 variant has been detected in Scotland for the first time.

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot