Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 16 April 2021

Published: 16 Apr 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 16 April 2021
Key Points

Key Points

  • The reproduction rate R in Scotland is currently estimated as being between 0.8 and 1.0. This is unchanged from the estimate of R on 7 April.
  • An average of 250 cases were reported per day in the 7 days to 15 April, which is a 24% decrease in reported cases since the 8 April.
  • There were 34 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 12 April, which is a decrease since last week. This compares to 302 weekly cases per 100,000 on 8 January and is similar to the weekly case rate observed on 21 September.
  • Case rates in all age groups have decreased, with the sharpest decline in cases in those aged 60+ this week.
  • The estimated proportion of people becoming infected with Covid in Scotland has decreased slightly in the most recent week and is currently below England, but above Northern Ireland and Wales as determined through the latest weekly ONS survey.
  • Latest modelled estimates suggest there are currently between 4 and 28 new daily infections per 100,000 people in Scotland.
  • Deaths involving coronavirus have declined most in those aged 75-84 over the 3 weeks to 11 April, having gone down by 70%.
  • Average daily deaths per 100,000 population in Scotland (0.04) are below Northern Ireland (0.07) and in line with England and Wales (0.04 each).
  • Clackmannanshire currently has the highest weekly case rate in Scotland reporting 81 cases per 100,000 in the last week, while Angus, Argyll and Bute, Dumfries and Galloway, Midlothian and Scottish Borders reported fewer than 10 weekly cases per 100,000 in the same time. Na h-Eileanan Siar and Orkney each had 0 cases per 100,000 in the last week.
  • At a national level hospital bed and ICU occupancy are projected to fall over the next few weeks, but these both may plateau or increase as a result of schools reopening and other relaxations of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
  • Over 2.7 million people in Scotland have been given a first vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, and over 661,000 have now received a second dose.
  • The current UK variant of concern remains the dominant strain.

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot