Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.92)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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1 On 1st March there is a jump in cases due to historical reinfections being added to the cumulative number of reported cases. Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - (

2 Using data to 28th February.

3 Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

4 The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produced by the Scottish Government are the two on the left. (Yellow uses confirmed cases from PHS; green uses wastewater data). The UKHSA consensus range is the right-most (red). Data to 28th February 2022. R, incidence and growth rate as of 15th February 2022.

5 Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - (

6 Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (

7 Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (

8 Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - (

9 Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - (

10 Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (

11 For this graph, a wastewater RNA average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date. Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey are overlaid, with a scale chosen to approximately match cases and wastewater Covid-19 levels in 2021.

12 Red dots corresponds to sites with at least one confirmed detection of BA.2, yellow corresponds to sites with possible detections, and black to sites with BA.2 not detected.

13 We have not been able to provide estimates for the Orkney or Shetland Islands this week.

14 Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 3 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.

15 Coverage as for week ending 28th February 2022.



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