Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.90)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

This document is part of a collection


1. Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - (

2. Using data to 14th February.

3. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

4. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimate produced by the Scottish Government is on the left (yellow). The UKHSA consensus range is the right‑most (red). Data to 14th February 2022. R, incidence and growth rate as of 1st February.

5. All projections are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. Data to 14th February 2022.

6. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection. Following the announcement removing the need for a confirmatory PCR test in some cases we have used combined PCR and LFD reported date data from 6th January.

7. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

8. For this graph, a wastewater Covid-19 average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date.

9. Due to inconsistent results from various models, UKHSA has not been able to provide estimates for

the Orkney or Shetland Islands this week.

10. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 3 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.

11. Coverage as for week ending 14th February 2022.



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