Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.89)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

This document is part of a collection


1. These figures are produced by Public Health Scotland as "experimental statistics" and may be subject to future revision as the new method for counting combined PCR and LFD tests evolves.


3. Using data to 7th February.

4. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

5. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimate produced by the Scottish Government is on the left (yellow). The UKHSA consensus range is the right‑most (red). Data to 7th February 2022. R, incidence and growth rate as of 25th January.

6. All projections are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. Data to 7th February 2022.

7. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

8. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

9. The technique uses a negative binomial model.

10. electronic Data Research and Innovation Service: ISD Services | Electronic Data Research and Innovation Service (eDRIS) | ISD Scotland.

11. For more detail on SIMD deciles refer to: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020 - (

12. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 3 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.

13. Coverage as for week ending 7th February 2022.



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