Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.83)

Published: 23 Dec 2021

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.83)
Technical Annex

Technical Annex

Which local authorities are likely to experience high levels of Covid-19 in two weeks' time

Table 1. Probability of local authority areas exceeding thresholds of cases per 100K (2nd to 8th January 2022). Data to 20th December.
Probability of exceeding (cases per 100K)
Local Authority (LA) 50 100 300 500
Aberdeen City 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 50-75%
Aberdeenshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Angus 75-100% 75-100% 50-75% 25-50%
Argyll and Bute 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
City of Edinburgh 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Clackmannanshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Dumfries & Galloway 75-100% 75-100% 50-75% 15-25%
Dundee City 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
East Ayrshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
East Dunbartonshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
East Lothian 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
East Renfrewshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Falkirk 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Fife 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Glasgow City 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Highland 75-100% 75-100% 25-50% 15-25%
Inverclyde 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 50-75%
Midlothian 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Moray 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 25-50% 15-25% 0-5% 0-5%
North Ayrshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
North Lanarkshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Orkney Islands 25-50% 15-25% 0-5% 0-5%
Perth and Kinross 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Renfrewshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Scottish Borders 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 50-75%
Shetland Islands 25-50% 15-25% 0-5% 0-5%
South Ayrshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
South Lanarkshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
Stirling 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
West Dunbartonshire 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%
West Lothian 75-100% 75-100% 75-100% 75-100%

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 13th and 20th December 2021, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person, which approximately corresponds to new cases per 100,000 per day. Coverage is given as percentage of LA inhabitants covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period[12].

Table 2. Average daily cases per 100k as given by WW data [13].
Local authority (LA) w/e 13th December w/e 20th December Coverage
Aberdeen City 37 87 99%
Aberdeenshire 30 59 50%
Angus 42 92 68%
Argyll and Bute 30 96 13%
City of Edinburgh 45 182 98%
Clackmannanshire 69 51 92%
Dumfries & Galloway 32 106 36%
Dundee City 46 123 100%
East Ayrshire 59 75 72%
East Dunbartonshire 107 164 99%
East Lothian 46 182 56%
East Renfrewshire 50 121 89%
Falkirk 86 169 96%
Fife 55 127 79%
Glasgow City 78 142 71%
Highland 24 59 48%
Inverclyde 58 122 98%
Midlothian 45 170 88%
Moray 25 79 28%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0%
North Ayrshire 40 80 93%
North Lanarkshire 86 147 44%
Orkney Islands 8 3 34%
Perth and Kinross 23 47 45%
Renfrewshire 61 155 97%
Scottish Borders 28 113 41%
Shetland Islands 5 5 29%
South Ayrshire 52 90 88%
South Lanarkshire 78 163 68%
Stirling 12 85 63%
West Dunbartonshire 58 86 98%
West Lothian 47 149 89%

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot