Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 73)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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1. On 16 September 2021, daily data on new cases and tests were not refreshed due to a technical issue affecting the availability of the data.

2. Using data to 11th October 2021.

3. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

4. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produced by the Scottish Government are the two on the left. (Yellow uses confirmed cases from PHS and deaths from NRS; green uses wastewater data).The UKHSA consensus range is the right‑most (red). Data to 11th October. R, incidence and growth rate as of 28th September.

5. All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. Data to 11th October.

6. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

7. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

8. Three week projections are provided here: Scientific evidence supporting the government response to coronavirus (COVID-19) - GOV.UK (

9. This week we are only showing the interquartile range of the projections for both hospitalisations and deaths. SPI-M-O agreed that the interquartile range represented their consensus view of the likely trajectory of the epidemic in Scotland this week.

10. The exceptions are Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands.

11. Values are included in Table 1 in the Technical Annex.

12. Anomalously high values, one in Seafield (Edinburgh) in mid-February (see Issue 40), one in Dunblane in mid-June, and two in Daldowie in January, were removed. For this graph, a wastewater RNA average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date.

13. Illnesses and long-term conditions: Long term effects of COVID-19 - (

14. NICE, RCGP and SIGN publish guideline on managing the long-term effects of COVID-19 | News and features | News | NICE

15. Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics (

16. Technical article: Updated estimates of the prevalence of post-acute symptoms among people with coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK - Office for National Statistics (

17. COVID-19 Infection Survey: methods and further information - Office for National Statistics.

18. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.

19. Coverage as at the week beginning 6th October 2021.



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