Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 50)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

This document is part of a collection


1. Deaths and Cases from PHS COVID-19 daily cases in Scotland dashboard.

2. Vaccination and contact data for the 0-19 age cohort is not presented due to the vast majority of the age group not being offered vaccinations and the SCS excluding contacts between children.

3. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - (

4. Four week projections are included here.

5. Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. The difference between the two projections reflects uncertainty about behaviour and compliance as interventions are relaxed.

6. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

7. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

8. Four week projections are provided here: Scientific evidence supporting the government response to coronavirus (COVID-19) - GOV.UK (


10. Note that some extreme readings (>200 million gene copies per person per day) were removed to improve interpretability, together with an anomalous reading from Seafield.



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