Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 49)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

23 page PDF

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23 page PDF

1.1 MB

Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 49)
Technical Annex

23 page PDF

1.1 MB

Technical Annex

How the modelling compares to the real data as it emerges

The following charts show the history of our modelling projections in comparison to estimates of the actual data. The infections projections were largely accurate during October to mid-December and from mid-January onward. During mid-December to mid-January, the projections underestimated the number of infections, due to the unforeseen effects of the new variant.

Figure 15: Infections projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and three weeks before the actual data came in.
A combination line and scatter graph comparing infections projections against actuals.

Hospital bed projections have generally been more precise than infections estimates due to being partially based on already known information about numbers of current infections, and number of people already in hospital. The projections are for number of people in hospital due to Covid-19, which is slightly different to the actuals, which are number of people in hospital within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test.

Figure 16: Hospital bed projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and three weeks before the actual data came in.
A combination line and scatter graph comparing hospital bed occupancy projections against actuals.

As with hospital beds, ICU bed projections have generally been more precise than infections. The projections are for number of people in ICU due to Covid-19. The actuals are number of people in ICU within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test up to 20 January, after which they include people in ICU over the 28 day limit.

Figure 17: ICU bed projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and three weeks before the actual data came in.
A combination line and scatter graph comparing ICU occupancy projections against actuals.
Table 1: Probability of local authority areas having more than 50, 100, 300 or 500 cases per 100K (9 – 15 May 2021). Data updated on 28 April.
LA P (Cases > 500) P (Cases > 300) P (Cases > 100) P (Cases > 50)
Aberdeen City 0-5% 0-5% 15-25% 15-25%
Aberdeenshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Angus 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Argyll and Bute 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
City of Edinburgh 0-5% 5-15% 15-25% 25-50%
Clackmannanshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 15-25%
Dumfries & Galloway 0-5% 0-5% 5-15% 15-25%
Dundee City 0-5% 0-5% 5-15% 15-25%
East Ayrshire 0-5% 0-5% 5-15% 25-50%
East Dunbartonshire 0-5% 0-5% 5-15% 15-25%
East Lothian 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
East Renfrewshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Falkirk 0-5% 0-5% 5-15% 5-15%
Fife 0-5% 0-5% 15-25% 25-50%
Glasgow City 5-15% 15-25% 25-50% 25-50%
Highland 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Inverclyde 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Midlothian 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Moray 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
North Ayrshire 0-5% 0-5% 5-15% 5-15%
North Lanarkshire 0-5% 5-15% 25-50% 25-50%
Orkney Islands 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Perth and Kinross 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Renfrewshire 0-5% 0-5% 5-15% 15-25%
Scottish Borders 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Shetland Islands 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
South Ayrshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
South Lanarkshire 0-5% 5-15% 15-25% 25-50%
Stirling 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
West Dunbartonshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
West Lothian 0-5% 5-15% 15-25% 15-25%

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot