Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 39)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement

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1. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - (

2. Better assumes a vaccine effect based on current roll-out plans. Worse is without this vaccine effect. The real-world effectiveness of vaccines, particularly against infection, is not yet known.

3. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

4. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP.

5. A six week projection is provided here.

6. Optimising the COVID-19 vaccination programme for maximum short-term impact - GOV.UK (



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