We use cookies to collect anonymous data to help us improve your site browsing experience.

Click 'Accept all cookies' to agree to all cookies that collect anonymous data. To only allow the cookies that make the site work, click 'Use essential cookies only.' Visit 'Set cookie preferences' to control specific cookies.

Set cookie preferences

Your cookie preferences have been saved. You can change your cookie settings at any time.

Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 29)

Published
3 December 2020
From
Director-General Health and Social Care
Directorate
Constitution Directorate
Part of
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland
ISBN
9781800044029

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

This document is part of a collection

View supporting documents Supporting documents

What we know about which regions are experiencing high levels of Covid

We use modelling based on Covid cases and deaths[3], conducted by Imperial College London, to give us an indication of whether a local authority is experiencing high levels of Covid. An area is defined as a hotspot if the two week prediction of cases (positive tests) per 100K population are predicted to exceed a threshold, e.g. 500 cases. See technical annex in issue 24.

Modelled rates per 100K (Figure 13) indicate that by the week of 13 – 19 December, 16 (down 5 in the last week) local authorities have at least a 75% probability of exceeding 50 cases, 4 (down 3) of those have at least a 75% probability of exceeding 100 cases and none have at least a 75% probability of exceeding 300 (or 500) cases.

Figure 13. Probability of local authority areas having more than 50, 100, 300 or 500 cases per 100K (13 - 19 Dec 2020). Data updated on 01 December [4].
A series of four maps showing the probability of Scottish local authorities having more than 50, 100, 300 or 500 cases per 100,000 population, corresponding to data for 13 – 19 December 2020.

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

Back to top