Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.104)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 7th and 14th July 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [3]
Local Authority (LA) w/e 7th July w/e 14th July Coverage
Aberdeen City 94 246 99%
Aberdeenshire 72 124 49%
Angus 90 98 68%
Argyll and Bute 60 171 13%
City of Edinburgh 124 159 98%
Clackmannanshire 153 86 92%
Dumfries and Galloway 98 92 39%
Dundee City 81 121 100%
East Ayrshire 181 110 72%
East Dunbartonshire 133 170 99%
East Lothian 109 134 74%
East Renfrewshire 135 119 95%
Falkirk 138 109 96%
Fife 68 63 84%
Glasgow City 155 142 98%
Highland 78 252 44%
Inverclyde 105 94 98%
Midlothian 125 164 88%
Moray 69 82 28%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 43 17 21%
North Ayrshire 158 82 92%
North Lanarkshire 93 146 94%
Orkney Islands 0%
Perth and Kinross 18 35 45%
Renfrewshire 118 104 97%
Scottish Borders 48 108 59%
Shetland Islands 0%
South Ayrshire 190 142 88%
South Lanarkshire 90 176 90%
Stirling 71 9 63%
West Dunbartonshire 74 106 98%
West Lothian 126 107 83%

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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