Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.103)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 24th June and 1st July 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [9].
Local Authority (LA) w/e 24th June w/e 1st July Coverage
Aberdeen City 181 154 99%
Aberdeenshire 112 107 52%
Angus 133 132 68%
Argyll and Bute 48 111 23%
City of Edinburgh 229 167 98%
Clackmannanshire 93 229 92%
Dumfries and Galloway 111 210 39%
Dundee City 163 162 100%
East Ayrshire 214 181 72%
East Dunbartonshire 264 124 99%
East Lothian 201 142 74%
East Renfrewshire 191 186 95%
Falkirk 156 230 88%
Fife 119 124 84%
Glasgow City 183 156 98%
Highland 88 178 44%
Inverclyde 133 87 98%
Midlothian 215 212 88%
Moray 151 168 28%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 130 131 21%
North Ayrshire 168 160 92%
North Lanarkshire 182 154 94%
Orkney Islands 207 34%
Perth and Kinross 119 61 45%
Renfrewshire 147 143 97%
Scottish Borders 160 336 58%
Shetland Islands 0%
South Ayrshire 206 214 84%
South Lanarkshire 155 222 90%
Stirling 54 146 63%
West Dunbartonshire 134 74 98%
West Lothian 118 175 95%

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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