Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue No.100)
Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.
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Footnotes
1. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.
2. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produce by the Scottish Government are the two green bars on the left. The UKHSA consensus range is the right-most (red). Data to 25th April. R and growth rate as of 26th April.
3. The UK POLYMOD figures from https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12916-020-01597-8
4. From the 31st March 2022, panels A and B were merged into one survey and are run fortnightly. These data points are reported as at the first day of the survey round. Further details of this are presented in the Technical Annex of issue 99.
5. Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
6. COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 17, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
7. Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
8. Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
9. An adjustment to the colour axes has been made in light of declining testing. The previous axes limits were: LFD tests/1,000: 0-350, PCR tests/1,000: 0-100, PCR/LFD positives/1,000: 0-40.
10. For this graph, a wastewater RNA average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date. Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey is overlaid, with a scale chosen to approximately match Jan/Feb trends in WW RNA. A batch of samples analysed on the 26th of April is excluded.
11. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.
12. Coverage as for week ending 24th May 2022.
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