Grangemouth - draft Just Transition Plan: consultation analysis

Part 4: Challenges to a Just Transition

In Part 4 of the consultation, the Scottish Government asked 4 questions inviting recommendations for addressing challenges to achieving a Just Transition for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster. The questions explored respondents’ views on further actions the Scottish Government could take to overcome these challenges and enhance the cluster’s economic contribution, key policy changes required at both Scottish and UK levels to unlock the opportunities outlined in the Just Transition Plan, and how the local community can play an active role in delivering the Plan’s actions. This section summarises the thematic analysis of these responses, structured by the specific question asked.

27. What more can the Scottish Government do to mitigate challenges to achieving a Just Transition at Grangemouth?

Respondents provided diverse suggestions for the SG to mitigate challenges to achieve a Just Transition at Grangemouth. These suggestions have been organised under five key themes: alignment and coordination, leadership and strategy, support with infrastructure, improved communication and transparency, and other suggestions. There were an equal number of suggestions for the first four groups, with fewer suggestions provided in relation to improved communication and transparency.

Alignment between stakeholders and coordination between local and national efforts

Suggestions were made for alignment of priorities between key stakeholders and to enhance the coordination between local and national efforts. A few respondents suggested that the SG should work with the UK Government to mitigate the challenges posed by refinery closures. Specifically, trade union and professional association respondents suggested that the SG and the UK Government should work together to deliver STUC’s proposal, which prioritises keeping Grangemouth working. One respondent suggests the SG and the UK Government should examine how to increase the competitiveness of UK chemical manufacturing. The respondent wrote:

"As a Council we are looking for commitments from the Scottish Government, and particularly the UK Government, to look at what levers can be pulled to make chemical manufacturing in the UK more competitive. This could be, for example, a temporary relaxation of carbon taxes, action to prevent product dumping in the UK market by foreign companies, or a process to add tariffs to imports to ensure an equitable energy cost is applied on products typically manufactured cheaper abroad." (local council)

Support with infrastructure

Wider industry and non-profit respondents suggested that the SG should provide funding support to areas facing challenges from the Transition. One respondent suggested that the SG could mitigate challenges by providing funding for critical infrastructure upgrades to ensure a smooth transition. The same respondent also suggested that the SG should streamline regulations and planning processes, which can help facilitate quicker and more effective implementation of critical projects and improvements.

Leadership and strategy

One respondent from the wider industry suggested that to mitigate any challenges that may arise from the transition, the SG needs to take a more active leadership role while developing a holistic strategy for Net Zero. Another respondent from the wider industry suggests the SG should have a long-term view when considering policy support to mitigate challenges, which would improve confidence and stimulate investment. A related suggestion was that the SG should provide a clear strategy to enable progress to be measured. Specifically, this respondent wrote:

"To mitigate challenges in achieving a Just Transition…the Scottish Gov should provide a clear strategy through a strong Vision, with roles, responsibilities and SMART actions to enable progress to be measured." (training provider)

Improved communication and transparency

Finally, there are two suggestions with a primary focus on the themes of communication and transparency. One local council respondent suggested that the SG should be transparent and clear about the challenges and priorities associated with the transition, in order to help mitigate the challenges it presents. Similarly, another non-profit/charity respondent suggested that the SG should be vocal about advocating for Scotland's broader value proposition on the global stage to support the transition.

Other suggestions

Respondents also provided a few other suggestions that could not be classified under a single theme. A general suggestion was for the SG to support in addressing the perceived decline of the Grangemouth industrial cluster before rebuilding its industry. Other more specific suggestions include suggestions around providing oil and gas licences that would help mitigate against challenges of building a green future. Similarly, another suggestion was that mitigation should consider challenges resulting from the pace of change facing the cluster, and the SG should encourage an 'early adopter' or 'first adopter' approach to new technologies.

28. What more can the Scottish Government do to enhance the economic contribution of the manufacturing cluster?

Respondents provided wide-ranging suggestions for the SG to enhance the economic contribution of the manufacturing cluster. Respondents who provided suggestions include those from industry, non-profit/charity, port operator and trade body/professional association, and individual respondent groups.

Suggestions can be organised into four key themes: support for employment, support for businesses, a coordinated approach to Just Transition, and a proactive approach to confronting challenges. Suggestions on support for business and support for employment were most common, with an equal number of respondents having suggestions on those themes. Having a positive approach is the least common theme for suggestions.

• Support for business: Respondents provided a range of suggestions for ways in which they felt the SG can support businesses. One respondent from the wider industry stated that to enhance the manufacturing cluster at Grangemouth, the industry needs to be at the heart of the Vision. They felt that the SG need to work closely with industry to determine the next steps of the action plan. They suggested that SG should give confidence to the industry to secure their investment in the Just Transition and to attract new industries to the Grangemouth Hub by providing clear, long-term incentives. Another industry respondent argued that the SG should strengthen the manufacturing cluster by primarily supporting businesses in terms of information-related issues. Specifically, they felt that SG should educate businesses on available opportunities, centralising and simplifying funding information, streamlining complex application processes, implementing a fast-track system for SMEs and providing dedicated support and guidance for businesses. In their view, such dedicated support and guidance will help businesses, especially SMEs, access crucial funding more easily and efficiently. One individual respondent suggested that the SG should utilize oil resources to fund and facilitate the development of new industries.
• Support for employment: Two specific suggestions were provided by respondents in this regard. First, it was suggested that SG’s renewable policies should prioritise domestic employment in the supply chain, along with enhancing job quality. Contextualising this, one individual respondent reported that the workers expressed concerns over the job quality and quantity of renewable energy jobs, which were perceived to be more challenging than conditions prevalent in gas and oil jobs. Improving renewable energy jobs was seen as helpful in incentivising these workers to transition and strengthening the economic contribution of the manufacturing cluster. Second, it was suggested that the SG should support in sustaining long-term manufacturing jobs at Grangemouth. One respondent wrote:

“Create and facilitate opportunities through a combination of policy, regulatory and financial frameworks that are aligned to addressing the challenges the manufacturing cluster needs to address to be competitive in a global market.” (port operator)

As the supply chain workers and contractors working at the refinery are part of the wider economic cluster in the Forth Industrial labour market, the closure of the Grangemouth refinery reduces the economic security of these workers, who travel between workplaces. Therefore, sustaining long-term manufacturing jobs at Grangemouth is particularly important for sustaining the industrial labour market as well as the manufacturing cluster in the immediate surrounding area and across the Central Belt.

• Coordinated approach to Just Transition: One respondent from wider industry argued that the current policy and support mechanisms for the manufacturing cluster are too disjointed. Accordingly, they felt that the SG should collaborate with the industry to secure support from the UK government. Similarly, a non-profit respondent argued that cluster activity and priorities, manufacturing excellence and national assets like NMIS, and supply chain building and resilience all need to be considered as a whole; they noted that the current approach is fragmentated, and risks weakening each of those components. Furthermore, they highlighted that such a holistic approach is also prominently mentioned in the UK Government’s Invest 2035 Green Paper.^[8] Therefore, it was suggested that SG policy should align with the UK Government's plans, ensuring that the Scottish element is not omitted from any future UK Government planning.
• Proactive approach to confronting challenges: Finally, one respondent argued that it is important for the SG to have a proactive approach in confronting any issues facing the manufacturing cluster.

29. What are the key policy changes that need to take place, at both a Scottish and UK level to unlock the opportunities outlined in the Just Transition Plan?

Respondents provided a wide range of responses on what they perceive as key policy changes needed at a Scottish and UK level to unlock opportunities in the JT Plan. These responses relate to eight key themes: skills and retraining, renewable energy and sustainable development, financial support and investment, Government leadership and collaboration, JT governance structure, Project Willow, alignment with international strategies and policies, and wider policy and regulation. Suggestions were most frequently made in relation to skills and workforce; and most frequently related to suggested actions for the Scottish Government.

Skills and workforce

For suggestions primarily focused on skills and workforce, the most common policy change proposed was to increase support for programmes that create job opportunities for workers to transition into for opportunities to be unlocked. In their view, such programmes include skills retraining programmes and apprenticeships. This view was shared by respondents from wider industry, non-profit/charity, training provider and trade body/professional association groups. One respondent wrote:

“Both governments must prioritise creating real job opportunities for workers to transition into, with priority focus on upgrading ports and developing a thriving manufacturing supply chain in the UK for offshore wind components. These jobs must be of high quality, must be targeted to the regions that need them most, and workers must be supported to transition into them, particularly those workers currently reliant on the oil and gas sector." (trade body/professional association)

Contextualising the suggestions, a trade union respondent reported frustration among workers, further noting scepticism among workers regarding promises of the SG. In this regard, suggestions were made for the SG to intervene more directly to address the jobs under threat.

Renewable energy and sustainable development

For suggestions relating to renewable energy and sustainable development, there were conflicting policy suggestions among the respondents on how opportunities would be unlocked.

One wider industry respondent felt that the current support for renewable energy is insufficient and suggested a range of initiatives, including enhancing renewable energy incentives, streamlining planning processes for green infrastructure, supporting circular economy practices, and investing in low-carbon infrastructure accessible to all organisations in Grangemouth.

In contrast, another individual respondent noted that the Government should not implement policies to arrive at Net-Zero so quickly and wait till technology has caught up to make Net-Zero financially viable.

Another individual respondent suggested that the Government should strategically prioritise creating industrial benefits from renewable energy development. The specific measures suggested to achieve this include active use of procurement and subsidies to prioritise cluster development and a more conditional approach to future licensing.

Financial support and investment

Respondents provided suggestions for increasing financial support in some sectors or activities, including industries impacted by Just Transition, businesses' investment in low carbon technologies, and relating to infrastructure development.

Leadership by Government and collaboration

A key suggestion from a non-profit respondent was the need for the Government to rebuild trust while providing stability and reassurance to all stakeholders by collaborating more closely with businesses and educational bodies. Specifically, the respondent wrote:

"Both the Scottish and UK Governments must undertake an exercise in rebuilding trust; something that has been somewhat eroded by erratic policy direction in recent years. The relationship between government and industry needs to be cooperative, and functioning at its very best to ensure a positive outcome for any proposed transition plan. [...] both the UK and Scottish Governments must seek to provide stability and reassurance that the current environment will not be subject to seismic shocks, by more closely collaborating with businesses and educational bodies." (non-profit/charity)

Another respondent from the wider industry specifically stated that the SG and UK Government should clarify the next steps on the Track 2 Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) Cluster Sequencing Programme, as they felt Just Transition for industry in Scotland relies on the ability to decarbonise.

JT Governance structure

Respondents expressed concerns regarding the way key decisions on Just Transition were being taken and felt it needs to be changed to unlock any opportunities. That said, there were conflicting opinions on who should have more influence in decision-making. One respondent from the wider industry argued that the green hydrogen companies should be included in the governance structure. Separately, individual and trade body respondents argued that the influence of the firms needs to be reduced, and the Government must lead decision-making with workers and the communities. One respondent wrote:

"There is a clear need for credible, coherent planning for the transition to ensure it delivers benefits for workers and communities. This must be led by both UK and Scottish governments and must involve workers, unions and communities. Crucially, government intervention needs to come early and decisions cannot be left solely in the hands of industry.” (trade body/professional association)

Project Willow

Suggestions were also made by industrial operators and wider industry, for the Government to continue to support Project Willow to unlock opportunities. They felt that Project Willow has illuminated a pathway of potential projects that, with support, could unlock substantial investment into a low-carbon manufacturing future and yield significant benefits for the economy, the environment, and the local community.

Alignment with international strategies and policies

The respondent suggests the Government need to align with international strategies and policies for low-carbon fuels and standards to unlock the opportunities.

Wider policy and regulation

A few respondents suggested that the Government should streamline the regulatory process. To achieve this, one port operator respondent suggested simplifying planning and consenting arrangements, while another training provider respondent proposed adopting a collaboration-based approach to regulation. Additionally, one respondent from the wider industry suggested that the Government should implement policies regarding fuel switching and blending.

Another key suggestion was for the Government to integrate the Scottish Cluster with the Grangemouth Just Transition Plan. These respondents noted that the Scottish Cluster provides the infrastructure and national framework, while Grangemouth delivers the local implementation and industrial transformation. Together, they are perceived to form a unified, mutually reinforcing strategy to decarbonise Scotland’s economy while maintaining industrial competitiveness, creating jobs, and supporting the transition. These respondents noted that policies for Grangemouth must complement the Scottish Cluster’s CCUS and hydrogen goals to avoid duplication and maximise efficiency and ensure a clean integration of Grangemouth industries into the Scottish Cluster’s CCS network.

30. What role can the community play as an active partner in rolling out the actions, how can this best be achieved?

Most respondents did not engage with this question. Respondents who did engage, spanned numerous types, including respondents from wider industry, non-profit, local council, port operator, trade body/professional association and individual respondents. The responses in this question should be viewed in the wider context of the Grangemouth community consultation and findings that were carried out in parallel with this consultation, and whose findings have been incorporated into this analysis.

Some respondents suggested that the community can be an active partner in the transition process. One trade body respondent specified that the community should come together around existing institutions or form a task force to proactively engage with the national and local government. One respondent wrote:

"The local community must play a crucial role throughout the Grangemouth transition process. Attending and participating in events, as well as voicing opinions and ideas for improvement, within the area can show support and help increase visibility. It also provides opportunities for community members to engage directly, something that has historically been undervalued in similar, transformative projects. Advocating by actively promoting and supporting missions and goals can help build a strong reputation and trust within the community. In order to be an active partner, it is important that the community are kept up-to-date, aware of opportunities and are clearly told what the benefits in supporting are." (non-profit/ charity)

Similarly, one respondent from the wider industry argued that the community should be kept engaged in the transition process and changes should not be implemented without their participation.

Equally common, some respondents, including primarily, local council and port operator respondent groups, argued that the community can play an active role in boosting the effectiveness of the roll-out of the action plan. One respondent wrote:

"So the only active role the community can play is to be receptive to change on the basis that any changes will bring opportunity, enhance the living environment and do no harm. This can be best achieved by ensuring the highest level of communication initially and throughout the period of change." (local council)

A minority group of individual respondents also provided suggestions on the role the community could play, but they seem to be influenced by personal sentiments. One respondent suggests the community need to be empowered to make its own decisions instead of being “ruled by corporate forces”. Another respondent wrote that the views of the climate sceptics in the community need to be taken seriously.